436
FXUS64 KLZK 271124
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper level ridge is over New Mexico which is providing northwest
flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east tonight, will be
over Arkansas by Friday morning, and will remain in place through
Friday night.

High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state
through Friday night. Warm conditions will continue today but warmer
conditions are expected Friday as a warm front moves north through
the state. Highs today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90 and in
the upper 80s to mid 90s Friday. Lows tonight will be in the mid
60s to lower 70s and in the 70s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

SATURDAY/SUNDAY:

In the upper lvls, the elongated ridge center will be positioned
over a region from the Southern Plains eastward over Arkansas and
into the Southeastern CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will be
approaching the state from the northwest on Saturday with the front
moving through Arkansas during the day on Sunday.

Expect an increase in POPs that will begin across northern Arkansas
and spread southward along the frontal boundary during the day on
Sunday. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
region of northern Arkansas on Saturday and transition into central
and southern Arkansas during the day on Sunday.

Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the weekend will
begin on average 8 to 10 degrees above normal on Saturday and become
cooler on Sunday as temperatures will remain near to just above
normal by a few degrees compared to climatological normals.

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge becomes placed directly
over the Natural State. At the sfc, high pressure remains across the
Mid-Western region of the CONUS as the state will be positioned
between two dynamic synoptic systems.

Expect hot and dry conditions with intense heat and heat index
values moving back into Arkansas by Tuesday. Plentiful amounts of
sunshine and nil chances for rainfall will be noted.

Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the beginning of
the workweek (Monday/Tuesday) will start near normal as the airmass
behind the frontal boundary will be slightly cooler. However, by
Tuesday, the airmass has modified back to around 10 degrees above
normal with many locations across the state eclipsing the century
mark on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY/LOOKING BEYOND:

In the upper lvls, the center of the high pressure slides southward
to position directly over the Deep South of the CONUS with a second
ridge becoming amplified over the Western region of the CONUS with
an approaching shortwave nearing the state on the northern periphery
of the ridge. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the
northwest and in cohesion with a sfc high pressure in the Mid-
Atlantic region of the CONUS will usher moisture into the Natural
State.

Expect and increase of POP chances across northern and central
portions of the CWA as we close in on Independence Day. Luckily,
this appears to be isolated activity and not a widespread event at
the current time so I wouldn`t cancel any plans for the Fourth of
July holiday timeframe, but we will continue to monitor this period
closely.

Temperatures in both terms of lows and highs over the period of
Wednesday and into Thursday will be on average 8 to 10 degrees above
normal compared to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure continues to build into Arkansas. Winds will
continue out of the north. VFR conditions will continue through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  67  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         91  68  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       88  66  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    92  68  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  91  72  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     89  72  96  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  66  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  88  67  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        90  68  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   91  69  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         91  68  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      89  71  92  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51