Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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047 FXUS64 KLZK 181109 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 609 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Currently, as of 2 AM CDT, portions of the Natural State are dealing with patches of dense fog again this morning; however, the fog is not as widespread or dense as yesterday morning. Fog will dissipate by late Wednesday morning and make way to mostly sunny skies and dry weather across the CWA and entire state of Arkansas. This theme of fair weather conditions with mostly sunny skies and no rain chances will continue into Thursday as well. The reason for this is upper lvl ridging that will persist over Arkansas working in unison with a localized area of sfc high pressure that will remain in close proximity to the region. Temperatures in response to this setup will be 5 to 10 degrees above average with respect to both low and high temperatures. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to low 90s statewide on Wednesday afternoon and inch upward on Thursday afternoon as the pattern mentioned above remains in place with highs peaking in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Guidance has been consistent in showing a rather amplified pattern in place when the period begins with the upper flow featuring deep troughing along both coasts and expansive ridging over the nations mid section. Model guidance remains in decent enough agreement this morning that whatever differences that do exist will just be blended. Upper ridging will dominate on Friday and for the majority of Saturday with some precip possible over the far NW corner of the CWA as moisture rotates around the ridge. Western CONUS upper low will pivot NE from central CA into the central plains by early Monday. As the system approaches, the ridge will be pushed to the east somewhat but hold on enough to keep precipitation chances confined to the northern part of the CWA with minimal chances elsewhere. Low will continue its NE trek moving into the western Great lakes region by Tuesday morning and dragging a cold front upwards the state. Front is not overly impressive and forecast to stall out or wash out during the day. Another front is then expected to approach the area at the conclusion of the period which the models are really not sure to do with at this point. Temperatures are expected to average above climatological average for this time of the year Friday through Sunday. Increased cloud cover and precipitation chances will knock them down somewhat across northern and to a lesser extent central sections Monday and beyond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Expect patchy fog across all sites for the first couple of hours of the forecast period on Wednesday morning that could drop VSBY to MVFR with intermittent IFR flight category across the northern, central, and southeastern terminals of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ. At the western sites of KHOT and KADF, flight category may drop to IFR with possible brief periods of LIFR flight category for reduced VSBY; however, this patchy fog will dissipate by late Wednesday morning. VFR flight category will then be expected all sites by late Wednesday morning and remain through the forecast period into Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 62 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 91 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 63 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 92 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 90 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 89 64 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 90 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 88 62 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 88 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...74