Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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975 FXUS64 KLZK 172249 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 549 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the area to the east. There has been more sunshine across much of northern/eastern/central Arkansas this afternoon, with clouds hanging on farther south/west. This is along/north of a boundary stalled along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required depending on the extent of the fog. Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer temperatures, especially on Thursday. For the most part, above average readings are expected. There is also no rain in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Not a lot of changes from the thinking yesterday at this time. The upper ridge building up over the central US during the short term will extend thru Friday and Saturday, followed by some changes later in the weekend. A closed upper low will move across MO and lift up toward the Great Lakes region, impacting the northern portions of the forecast area a bit, before a more broad trof takes its place across the central sections of the country late in the period. At the surface a cold front will approach NW AR and will stall out, and will eventually wash out into the NW portion of the forecast area on Tuesday. All of this will bring some chances for precip across primarily the northern reaches of the forecast area from Sunday onwards, although there will be some chances all the way down into the western and central portions of the state. It is not inconceivable that an organized cluster of storms during this period could form over the northern or northwestern reaches of the area and build or propagate further southward into the state. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The isolated SHRA across SRN sections late this afternoon should dissipate with the loss of solar heating. Expect dominant VFR conditions through the TAF period. However...some patchy fog may again be seen overnight into Wed morning...but shouldn`t be as as widespread as Tue morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 85 61 88 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 65 89 65 91 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 60 85 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 65 90 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 65 89 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 65 89 65 90 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 62 89 63 93 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 85 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 59 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 63 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 64 88 64 92 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 86 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 61 86 63 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...62