Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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976 FXUS64 KLZK 171128 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 After several days of unsettled weather courtesy of Francine`s remnant low, improving conditions are expected through the short term period. However, patchy dense fog has developed or is expected to develop across parts of the CWA, mainly over northern and east central sections where the heaviest rain was observed over the past few days. As such a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9 AM this morning. Otherwise, moisture will continue to linger across mainly southern Arkansas as what is left of Francine finally exits the region. Some of the short term guidance is trying to squeeze out a few showers but decided not to place any precipitation in the grids/forecast at this time. Guidance is consistent in moving upper level ridging over the region through the period for overall warm and dry conditions. Once what fog is out there burns off and skies clear, high temps will warm back up to above seasonal averages today and Wednesday with readings in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will dip into the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A flip-flop weather-wise from the below average temperatures and multiple days of wet weather that we have seen over the past several days across the Natural State awaits in the long-term forecast period from the middle of the week into early next week. The main features that will drive this flip-flop that will coerce temperatures in the realm of 5 to 10 degrees above average will be upper lvl ridging that will be positioned over the state and remain throughout the period. At the sfc, an area of localized high pressure will aid in keeping weather conditions fair overall. An upper lvl closed low and attendant trof will approach over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS, but this feature is expected to eject quickly northward of the CWA. However, the proximity of this feature will introduce low POPs into the forecast going into the weekend for the northwestern half of the state; additionally, any precipitation will be isolated, if any does occur. The trend of these low POPs will continue into early next week, but chances overall will be low and any location that does see precipitation will not see much at all. Hence my flip-flop metaphor as now we are completely doing a 180 with predominately dry conditions and above average temperatures the main story in the long-term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Widespread fog and low clouds continue at the majority of the TAF sites with LIFR to IFR conditions across the north and MVFR to IFR elsewhere. Conditions will improve by mid to late morning with all terminals returning to VFR conditions until very late in the period when additional fog is expected to develop. Cloud cover will decrease with time as moisture from the remnants of tropical system exit and upper level ridging begins to build back over the region. Winds will be light and from the east to northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 85 65 89 65 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 83 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 87 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 88 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 87 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 85 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 85 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 86 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 86 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>007- 014>016-024-025-033-034-047-103-112-113-203-212-213-313. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...56