726
FXUS64 KLZK 160459
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1159 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No significant changes are forthcoming with this forecast update.
Synoptically, an expansive ridge centered over the MS River and a
nearby surface high will promote large scale subsidence across the
region. Despite widespread subsidence, a few widely scattered
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop over Nrn
AR during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Due to the
proximity of high pressure, winds will be light and variable.

Temperature are expected to be hot today into Sunday, with readings
well into the 90s under mostly sunny skies. Daytime fair weather
Cumulus should develop each afternoon with the commencement of
vertical mixing. The combination of higher humidity in conjunction
with hot temperatures will make heat index values range from 100 to
near 105 degrees both afternoons. These values should fall just
short of heat advisory criteria but it will be uncomfortable
nonetheless. Low temperatures each day should be in the lower to mid
70s.

Rain chances will ramp up on Monday with the arrival of upper level
energy from the Gulf of Mexico. PoPs will be highest in the
afternoon with the aid of daytime heating. Best coverage of rainfall
should be over the SE and E half of AR. Rainfall amounts should be
light, with generally 0.25 of an inch or less expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Not many value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon and
only minimal changes have been made to the grids. Guidance continues
to show some precipitation chances early in the period before the
dry and hot conditions return. A general blend of forecast solutions
was used.

The period initiates with a sprawling upper level ridge along the
eastern seaboard and upper troughing over the west. Area will be in
between these two systems with a continual stream of tropical
moisture coming in from the gulf. An upper level impulse will be
moving overhead and a much stronger impulse will be moving into the
Texas gulf coast supporting low end precipitation chances through
Wednesday.

Majority of the precipitation in the period will likely be diurnally
driven with POPS decreasing as moisture plume heads off to the west.
Aforementioned ridge will retrograde slightly before becoming more
elongated and once again will be the dominate weather feature. POPs
will be minimal but a pop up shower or thunderstorm can never be
ruled out in this environment.

Temperatures early in the period will generally be in the 80s due to
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Once the ridge returns and
cloud cover decreases, temperatures are expected to warm back into
the 90s. Lows in the 70s will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period under
high pressure. Winds will be mostly light and variable overnight
then becoming south/southwesterly Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  73  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         94  72  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       89  70  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  94  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     93  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      92  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  91  71  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
Newport AR        98  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   94  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      95  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...73