Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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804 FXUS64 KLZK 031127 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Guidance continues to agree that the mid level flow will be largely quasi-zonal until late in the period and that a series of short wave troughs/mesoscale features will pass through or near the forecast area. This is pretty much all they agree on as CAMS guidance remains inconsistent in exactly where and when these features will move through and what happens when they do. MCS that moved through extreme southern Arkansas Sunday evening has all but dissipated but guidance continues to show another subtle SWT over the central plains early this morning. Convection forecast to initiate over eastern OK around daybreak and then spread over the forecast area as the day progresses. Latest runs of the HRRR have this convection intensifying as it moves across the state during the day. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and expansion of slight risk to cover the entire CWA this morning seems justified. Some of the CAMS guidance (in particular the HRRR) have another area of strong convection moving from the central plains into western and southern Arkansas Tuesday morning before diving into LA early in the day. Will hold off on making any wholesale changes concerning this convection as HRRR seems to be an outlier at this time but overall pattern does at least support this happening. Guidance does remain consistent in dropping a much larger trough into the nations mid section by the end of Tuesday as surface low pressure moves across the central Manitoba. Surface boundary will be located over far northwest Arkansas with additional showers and thunderstorms developing along and preceding said boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The long-term forecast period which includes the timeframe from the middle of the workweek through the weekend will be a mixed bag of unsettled and fair weather. Upper lvl northwesterly flow and a series of SWTs within the flow pattern will approach and move over Arkansas. An upper ridge will build across the Southwestern region of the CONUS keeping the stream of northwesterly flow positioned to traverse over the Natural State throughout the period. On Wednesday, an approaching cold front will be nearing the state keeping POP chances elevated across the CWA for Wednesday into Wednesday Night. The good news is that this feature quickly moves across the state on Wednesday Night into the early morning hours on Thursday making way to an overall fair period of weather aided by a region of sfc high pressure that moves in behind the departing cold front and remains for Thursday through Friday Night. Compared to the forecast package issued last night, this is a significant change as POP chances are nearly nil over this period. However, the POP roller coaster continues during the long-term forecast period as another cold front approaches the state from the north on Saturday increasing the POP chances once again as rain and possibly thunderstorms chances will be back into the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. In regard to temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures will be near to slightly above average compared to climatological normals for this time of the year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will become much more widespread during the afternoon and develop into a line of convection later in the day. The stronger storms will be capable of producing winds in excess of 40 knots as they move through. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period but MVFR to even brief IFR conditions will be possible in and near convection. Winds overall will be light and southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 68 85 72 / 70 60 40 60 Camden AR 87 70 88 71 / 60 30 20 20 Harrison AR 80 66 83 67 / 70 40 30 80 Hot Springs AR 84 69 86 70 / 60 30 20 40 Little Rock AR 85 71 88 73 / 60 40 30 40 Monticello AR 86 72 89 73 / 50 40 30 10 Mount Ida AR 84 68 85 70 / 60 30 20 50 Mountain Home AR 81 66 84 69 / 70 40 40 70 Newport AR 82 69 85 72 / 70 60 50 60 Pine Bluff AR 86 71 88 72 / 50 30 30 20 Russellville AR 84 69 86 72 / 70 40 30 60 Searcy AR 83 68 86 71 / 70 50 40 50 Stuttgart AR 84 72 86 73 / 60 40 30 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...56