948
FXUS64 KLZK 051650 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1150 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Another overnight shift, another MCS and much like the previous one,
it has been trending downward over the past few hours. While it
still may be capable of some gusty winds, the greater concern this
morning may be localized flooding as a large area of light to
moderate rain will follow the weakening line of convection.

However, latest QPF and observed rain so far really does not support
a flash flood watch at this time and it will be cancelled it before
its expiration time.

CAMS guidance, particularly the HRRR, has performed well with this
MCS and will follow its lead for the most part this morning.
Guidance does keep the remains of the MCS and the highest QPF to the
south and southwest of the CWA.

Meanwhile, upper troughing continues to advance through the nations
mid section this morning. Low pressure located across Manitoba and
increased ridging over the western CONUS will drive a cold front
through the state today. Boundary expected to be entering NWA around
daybreak and progress slowly through the state with precipitation
chances ending from northwest to southwest with time.

Guidance continues to once again generate an MCV of varying strength
across central and southern Arkansas which may help precipitation
linger for a bit longer but otherwise no adverse impacts are
expected from it. Boundary is not a cold front per say with temps
running just a touch below average today and then above average on
Thursday but at least it will be dry, so there is that.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:

In the upper lvls, a strong ridge builds across the Southwestern
region of the CONUS coercing north-northwesterly flow over Arkansas.
At the sfc, a dry cold front will have progressed from north to south
across the Natural State by Friday morning with a sfc high pressure
moving into the region behind the frontal boundary.

Expect fair conditions with low to nil chances for POPs with cloud
cover that will vary from partly cloud to mostly sunny, but will see
a trend of increasing clouds into late Friday.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, the ridge becomes amplified over the Western
CONUS before beginning to break down toward the end of the long-term
forecast period with overall northwesterly flow over Arkansas with a
few shortwaves that will traverse the flow pattern over the state.
At the sfc, rain and isolated storm chances will begin to increase
over this three-day period as on Saturday a warm front will approach
the state from the west, then on Sunday, the boundary becomes a
stationary front draped across Arkansas parallel to the Interstate
40 corridor, and finally into Monday the stationary boundary slowly
dips into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi (well south of
the CWA). However, this will keep POP chances on Monday possible for
the southern part of Arkansas.

Expect an unsettled pattern of increased POPs across the CWA a
several upper lvl disturbances will move over the state and a few
sfc boundary will provide ample opportunities for rain and
thunderstorms. At the moment, severe potential remains low, but will
continue to be monitored in subsequent forecast packages for the
latest updated information as we approach the weekend.

TUESDAY:

The ridge across the Western region of the CONUS begins to break
down and a trof looks to enter the flow pattern on a trajectory to
pass north of the state. At the sfc, the aforementioned stalled
boundary moves offshore into the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front with
a stout region of sfc high pressure moving into the Central Plain
region of the CONUS behind the departing front.

Expect overall fair conditions with low to nil POPs and cloud cover
that will be partly cloudy to end the long-term forecast period
early next week.

Temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures over the
entire long-term forecast period of Friday through Sunday will be
around normal to slightly above average compared to climatological
normals for this time of the year. However, temperatures with
respect to low and high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be
slightly below average for this time of the year compared to
climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Some scattered SHRA will continue for a few more hrs as the MCV
slowly rotates over central AR...moving east over time. This
activity should push east of the state by late this
afternoon...with MVFR conditions transitioning to VFR for much of
the rest of the period. Some patchy MVFR conditions may be seen
overnight due to patchy fog however. Otherwise...dry conditions
will be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  64  90  63 /  60  10   0   0
Camden AR         84  64  92  67 /  80   0  10   0
Harrison AR       82  61  86  58 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  63  93  67 /  70   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  83  65  92  68 /  70  10  10   0
Monticello AR     81  66  92  69 /  80  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      84  62  93  66 /  60   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  85  62  87  58 /  40   0   0   0
Newport AR        83  63  90  63 /  70  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     81  64  91  68 /  80  10  10   0
Russellville AR   86  62  91  65 /  60   0  10   0
Searcy AR         82  64  91  63 /  70  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      80  64  90  68 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...62