471
FXUS64 KLZK 272354
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
654 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper level ridge over the SW US will be migrating eastward and
flattening out a bit, eventually bringing the center of the ridge
over Arkansas by Saturday.

At the surface, the remnant cold front that passed thru the area
yesterday will be moving back north as a warm front tomorrow and
tomorrow night, and on Saturday another cold front will be
approaching the area from the northwest. The front is expected to
enter the area in the extended term, but showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the boundary will result in increased chances for
precipitation across the north on Saturday.

All eyes are on the heat building back across the area tomorrow and
Saturday. While temps will start to increase notably tomorrow,
dewpoints will lag a bit, and heat indices look as if they will
be below heat advisory criteria.

Saturday will be another story, however. The moisture will be back
in the wake of the warm front, and high temperatures will be in the
95-100 degree range across much of the forecast area. I am
anticipating that heat advisories will be required for much of the
area, and possibly an excessive heat warning for some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A brief break from the heat will be noted across parts of the state
Sun-Mon as a cold front slides south into the area. This front will
help trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday, through the
afternoon/evening hours. This precip and associated cloud cover will
help temper forecast highs a bit, at least across northern parts of
the state. The front will actually push south of the state which
will provide slightly lower T/Td values on Monday. After that, the
heat returns.

Hot and humid conditions will be noted across the state through much
of the long term portion of the forecast as H500 ridging remains
parked over the region. This includes daily high temperatures in the
mid 90s F to around 100 F with Td values in the 60s/70s F. Most days
will see at least portions of the area requiring some sort of heat
related headline due to heat indices in excess of 105. HeatRisk
values will primarily be 3 (Major) or higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sctd CU field wl cont to dissipate acrs the FA early. Otherwise,
VFR conds wl continue thru Fri, with mainly high lvl clouds
increasing during the latter half of the PD. Light winds tngt wl
incrs fm the south at 5 to 10 kts Fri.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...44