354
FXUS64 KLZK 020840
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
340 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Recent objective mesoanalysis depicted strong sfc low pressure
across the Cntrl Frnt Rng, w/ departing sfc high pressure over N/Ern
US. A strong horz pres gradient and encroaching sfc pres falls acrs
the Srn Great Plains wl drive prominent Srly sfc flow over the FA,
and usher in incrsg heat and humidity levels once again.

For now, higher heat and humidity, including advisory level heat, wl
be most prominent over the Wrn to S/Wrn portions of the FA this
aftn. Elsewhere around the FA, expect temps back into the 90s by
this aftn.

Wed, a trailing cdfrnt, extending acrs the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions and into Cntrl Canada wl be knocking on the doorstep of Nrn
AR and the Ozark Plateau. Thru the day Wed, recent guidance has
continued to depict a band of higher QPF asctd w/ precip along this
advancing frnt, primarily acrs Srn MO, though any shifts in the
forward movement of the frnt could allow for some higher QPF to
spill over into Nrn AR.

Covg of scattered storms wl still be noted acrs Nrn AR Wed aftn,
ahead of the advancing frnt, and some weak vertical shear is
expected to be in place, generally 30 kts or less. Modest buoyancy
and meager shear wl support some isolated organized storm potential,
with hail and damaging winds the primary hazards expected.

Along w/ incrsg rain and storm chcs on Wed, heat and humidity levels
wl cont to rise, w/ most areas at or above advisory heat index
levels Wed aftn. Cloud cover and covg of rain acrs Nrn AR may
provide some relief towards the late aftn/early evng timeframe.
Otherwise, look for temps to climb back to the upper 90s to triple
digits in some locations, coupled w/ heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees or more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The overall pattern has not changed much in the long term. The
period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the southern
United States. Dangerous hot conditions are in the forecast on
Independence Day, with afternoon heat index values from 100 to 115
degrees. Heat headlines will likely be required.

While this is happening, the ridge will be in the process of slowly
buckling over the middle of the country. This will happen as a
trough deepens, and ridging is forced toward the southwest United
States and the southeast. A cold front will ride a west/northwest
flow aloft into the region Thursday night/Friday. The front will be
accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly
cooler/drier and more seasonal air.

Any severe weather and flash flooding Thursday night/Friday will be
spotty/localized. The main concern with storms that become severe
will be damaging winds.

It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this
weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty. During this time
frame into early next week, seasonal temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR condns were noted around the FA this evng, w/ only some
passing high cloud cover. Expect VFR condns thru the coming TAF
PD, w/ Srly winds resuming Tues aftn.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  75  97  77 /   0  10  30  10
Camden AR         98  76  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
Harrison AR       94  75  96  74 /  10  10  30  10
Hot Springs AR    97  77  99  78 /   0   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  96  79  99  80 /   0   0  20   0
Monticello AR     96  77  99  80 /   0   0  20   0
Mount Ida AR      96  75  97  76 /  10   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  94  75  96  74 /  10  10  40  20
Newport AR        93  75  98  77 /   0   0  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     96  76  98  78 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   96  77  99  78 /  10   0  20  10
Searcy AR         93  74  98  77 /   0   0  20  10
Stuttgart AR      93  77  97  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-066>068-122-137-138-140-
141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ121-130.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...72