299
FXUS64 KLZK 251821 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
121 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

TUESDAY (Today):

The upper lvl ridge remains fixated over the Southwestern region of
the CONUS with a continuation of above normal temperatures expected
to remain across the Natural State on average 8-10 degrees above
average compared to climatological normals expected across the
state.

At the sfc, a dry stationary front will remained stalled along the
Arkansas/Mississippi before moving away from the state back to the
east. Expect surface winds to remain predominately out of the south-
southwest to southwest across the state which will continue to usher
in hot temperatures along with enough moisture via the Gulf of
Mexico that will transpire to dewpoint temperatures (forecast
Tuesday afternoon varying from the lower 60s to lower 70s statewide)
leading the need for heat headlines once again meeting Heat Advisory
criteria across the entire state of heat index values reaching and
exceeding 105 degrees with an Excessive Heat Warning being needed
across the eastern potion of Arkansas as heat index values will meet
or exceed 110 degrees.

Heat safety will need to be exercised on Tuesday as a near carbon
copy day is expected with conditions to be similar to temperatures
felt statewide on Monday.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

In the upper lvls, a shortwave approaches the state in conjunction
with an approaching cold front at the sfc that will near the state
Wednesday morning and move through the state during the day on
Wednesday. Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will
increase throughout the day on Wednesday provide increased POPs
across the CWA overall throughout the day. Compressional heating
will be possible as the cold front approaches the area and heat
headlines may be needed across the southern half of the state.

It is important to understand that this cold front will in no way be
cold, but only provide us with a slight and quick break away from
the magnitude of hot and dry weather the entire CWA has been
experiencing.

Precipitation amounts are not expected to amount to much with most
locations only seeing from a trace amount to as much as a couple
tenths of an inch of rainfall over the period of Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Expect statewide temperatures to rebound to their
above normal values by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Guidance continues to show a continuation of the hot conditions
across the forecast area with only minimal relief, which will occur
early in the period. Rain chances will also be minimal with guidance
showing the upper ridge building right over the region early next
week.

Period initiates with some slightly cooler conditions in place in
the wake of the weak boundary that moves through Wednesday. Highs
will only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s as northerly winds will
persist. Heat index values will likely not reach criteria for any
type of headlines.

The relief will likely be short lived as the upper level ridge will
be shifting from the desert southwest Thursday to the south central
CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise once again
Friday and Saturday with highs back into the mid to upper 90s. Heat
related headlines seem likely across parts of the county warning
area once again.

Models do try to move a weak cold front through the region sometime
Sunday into Sunday night which will knock temperatures down but only
by a few degrees. Rain is not expected to be widespread with the
upper ridge continuing to build over the area but some areas could
possibly squeeze out upwards of a quarter of an inch of rain.

Period will end with the upper ridge building over the region with
plenty of moisture streaming into the area with pronounced southerly
flow. Temperatures will likely be approaching triple digits in some
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Broad diurnal Cu field was noted on recent vis sat imgry, w/ VFR
condns ongoing at area terminals. Expect S/Wrly winds to persist
thru the day, w/ area cloud covg and winds diminishing after 00Z
tonight. VFR condns are expected thru the overnight PD. Precip,
including TS, is expected sometime after 12Z Wed mrng to be moving
into Nrn AR, however confidence remains low on timing attm, so
have omitted precip groups late in the PD for now.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  92  71  90 /  20  70  10   0
Camden AR         75  95  73  93 /  20  50  30  10
Harrison AR       71  89  68  88 /  20  70   0  10
Hot Springs AR    76  96  73  93 /  10  50  20  10
Little Rock   AR  79  95  75  93 /  20  60  20  10
Monticello AR     78  94  74  92 /  20  60  40  10
Mount Ida AR      74  94  72  93 /  10  50  20  10
Mountain Home AR  72  89  69  88 /  20  70   0   0
Newport AR        77  94  72  90 /  20  70  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  94  73  92 /  20  60  30  10
Russellville AR   76  94  74  92 /  20  60  10   0
Searcy AR         76  94  72  91 /  20  70  20   0
Stuttgart AR      79  93  74  91 /  20  60  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-
008-016-017-025-033-034-046-047-057-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...72