949
FXUS64 KLZK 230513 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The ridge of high pressure across the southern to northeastern CONUS
is breaking down, as an upper trough, surface Low pressure and cold
front move across the south-central and Midwestern states. These
features will continue to develop cloud cover, rain showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the CWA through the next couple of
days. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Their main
threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, with potential for heavy
rain and localized flooding.

The showers and storms will begin across northern AR Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night, spreading across western and central
portions of the state by Monday morning. Coverage will expand to
cover much of the forecast area by Monday evening and will be
confined mainly to southern and eastern portions of the state by
Tuesday.

Temperatures remain well above normal Sunday, with highs reaching
the upper 80s to the mid 90s. As the system progresses eastward,
temperatures will start to drop. By Monday afternoon, highs
across west and north Arkansas will be in the lower to upper 70s,
but in the upper 80s to lower 90s across central, southern and
eastern AR. By Tuesday afternoon, highs will be in the 70s-80s
across much of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone will be
making progress southward toward the state from the Central
Plains/Mid-MS Valley. This feature will be surrounded by ridges in
place across the western US and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US.

This feature will settle in over the state for the mid to late week
timeframe and will become cutoff from the main flow. While this
feature rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south. This setup will provide persistent cloud cover,
occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures across
Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
could become Helene moves toward the eastern Gulf Coast. Continued
flanking by mid-level ridges could lead to some mutual interaction
between these features across the region. Confidence remains low at
this time, but if these two features were to interact as depicted by
available 12z model data, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall
in close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below
normal temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low
remains nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VCSH wl lkly persist near Nrn terminals overnight Sun thru Mon
mrng. MVFR VISBY`s wl be possible acrs Nrn terminals as well in
b/w VCSH. Elsewhere, VFR condns should persist thru much of the
overnight PD. Mon aftn, a cdfrnt wl be moving slowly thru the
state, w/ Sctd convection expected to develop acrs the N/Wrn half
of the state, towards 18-22Z Mon aftn. Intermittent MVFR condns
are anticipated w/ this precip activity. 00Z and later, precip
covg should shift towards Cntrl AR, though covg may also begin to
dissipate in the immediate hours after 00Z. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs
are expected to persist behind the frnt acrs at least the N/Wrn
half of the FA by Mon evng, w/ winds bcmg Nrly.

/72/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  65  79  60 /  50  60  40  20
Camden AR         90  68  84  63 /  30  30  30  30
Harrison AR       73  60  73  57 /  80  30  10  20
Hot Springs AR    88  64  84  62 /  40  40  10  30
Little Rock   AR  89  68  84  66 /  30  40  20  30
Monticello AR     92  71  85  65 /  10  30  40  30
Mount Ida AR      85  62  83  59 /  40  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  75  62  75  58 /  80  50  10  20
Newport AR        84  67  79  62 /  40  60  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     91  69  83  64 /  20  50  30  30
Russellville AR   82  64  81  61 /  50  40  10  20
Searcy AR         87  67  82  63 /  40  60  30  20
Stuttgart AR      90  69  82  65 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72