852
FXUS64 KLZK 260546
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Hazardous heat remains in place acrs the FA this aftn, w/ most
locations seeing temps in excess of 95F, and heat index values of
105F to 110F or greater. An expansive diurnal Cu field was noted on
recent vis sat imgry, w/ some agitated Cu developing into isolated
showers/storms acrs Nrn AR. Expect incrsg covg of isolated precip
thru the remainder of the aftn and evng hrs, w/ greatest chc PoPs
over Nrn AR, and portions of Srn Cntrl to S/Ern AR.

Heading into Wed, precip chcs are expected to incrs fm Nrn AR to Srn
AR thru the day, as an apparent overnight MCS is progged to move in
tandem w/ a small H500 shortwave/vort max Swrd thru the mid-MS River
Valley. Most CAM guidance is still exhibiting a high spread on
timing, and location of this feature, though a mean track of precip
seems to suggest the convective complex should move thru at least
portions of Nrn, to N/Ern, and Ern AR sometime Wed mrng to aftn.

A number of factors wl play into potential heat risk on Wed, w/ an
MCS expected to move thru portions of the FA, residual outflow
boundaries, low-lvl Nrly steering flow, and asctd cloud cover would
lkly keep area temperatures and heat index values subdued below
advisory levels. Lower confidence currently lies acrs S/Wrn to Srn
AR, where the impacts of precip and aforementioned factors may be
less significant. For now, have opted to withhold issuing an advisory
for Wed due to high uncertainty, but condns and future trends may
warrant another advisory for at least, portions of Srn AR tomorrow
aftn. Temps on Wed should trend back to near-normal values, w/ area
readings in the upper 80s over Nrn AR to low 90s elsewhere.

In the wake of the passing MCS, an asctd cdfrnt is expected to
filter into the FA, lkly washing out over the Cntrl portion of the
state, leaving behind weak N/Erly sfc flow. Temps wl lkly not be
impacted much, w/ area readings staying near normal values, and
dewpoints tapering down slightly, mostly acrs Nrn and N/Ern AR. Some
precip chances wl linger acrs the S/E thru the day Thurs, but
otherwise, dry and settled condns are expected amidst the brief mid-
week cooldown.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We will be marching back up to unseasonably mild temperatures by
Thursday as the upper level ridge shifts from Texas to back over the
midsouth by the end of the week. There still appears to be a weak
front expected to drop into North Arkansas by late Saturday. This
will provide cloud cover and an opportunity for showers beginning in
North Arkansas late Saturday and spreading into Central Arkansas by
Sunday before washing out over southern Arkansas on Sunday night.
Models aren`t indicating more than a quarter to half an inch of rain
for the entire forecast area. By Monday into Tuesday, a strong upper
ridge will build and the extreme heat will return with even hotter
temps forecasted than what we experienced this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upper ridge is just west of Arkansas with northwest flow aloft
over Arkansas. Rain chances will increase Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the area. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to dive south through the morning hours, affecting
most sites into the afternoon. MVFR conditions may accompany the
convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds should
shift to the north behind the front and may gust to 20 kts near
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  70  90  71 /  70  20  10   0
Camden AR         93  71  93  73 /  60  30  10   0
Harrison AR       90  68  88  70 /  70  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    93  71  93  73 /  50  30  10  10
Little Rock   AR  92  74  92  75 /  70  30  10   0
Monticello AR     92  73  92  74 /  60  40  20  10
Mount Ida AR      92  70  92  72 /  50  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  89  69  88  70 /  70  10  10   0
Newport AR        93  72  90  72 /  60  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  72  91  73 /  50  30  10   0
Russellville AR   92  73  92  73 /  70  20  10   0
Searcy AR         91  72  91  71 /  70  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR      91  73  90  74 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...51