348
FXUS64 KLZK 242355
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate MVFR ceilings
across northern and parts of central portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures ranged from near 70 along the Missouri border, to the
mid 80s in the south central potions.

A weak boundary in northwest sections of the state will move
southeast through Wednesday, and will promote widely scattered
showers.

A more focused precipitation event is expected for Thursday (and
beyond), mainly for northeast sections. Upper level energy is
forecast to form a cut-off low, then slowly drift southwestward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Storm (eventually Hurricane Helene) will move northward
across the eastern GoM across the FL panhandle late this week,
moving inland late Thursday. Once the tropical system moves inland,
it will begin to interact with a system over the Southern
Mississippi Valley region, eventually merging by early Saturday.

Between Thursday and Monday, the system over the S MS valley region
will begin pulling moisture from the tropical system and wrapping
the moisture around its north side, to produce rain chances across
much of AR. The majority of this rain is expected to occur Thursday
and Friday, and northern portions of the state look to receive the
higher accumulations. 2-3+ inches of rain are forecast across
roughly the northern half of the state, with a trace to around 1.5
inches across the southern half. The system looks to move on,
exiting the region to the east, on Monday. The forecast looks dry
from late Monday through at least the middle of next week.

Temperatures will start out below average, with highs in the lower
to mid 70s across the state. We`ll see a bit of a warming trend
through the period, as temperatures return to near average, with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s
to 60s through early next week. Looking beyond the long-term
forecast period, the Climate Prediction Center favors near
average temperatures from Sept 29 through Oct 3. Their
precipitation forecast favors below average precipitation across
the west and southwest part of the state, and slightly above
average precipitation across the northeast corner of Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid and high level clouds wl cont increase from the northwest
in advance of an apchg upper lvl impulse. Cannot rule out a few
showers with this feature, although drier air has contd to advect
into the region that may limit coverage. Patchy fog is possible
Wed mrng, producing brief MVFR vsbys. Otherwise, VFR wl prevail
thru the PD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44