197
FXUS64 KLZK 231837
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
137 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A surface Low pressure system is moving across the Ozarks region,
with a cold front sweeping across the state Monday through Monday
night, producing rainshowers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms
may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail. Isolated heavy rain with localized flooding will
also be a concern. Much of the strong to severe activity is expected
to be mainly across central to north/northeast Arkansas, while more
general showers and isolated storms develop across the rest of the
forecast area.

Northwestern portions of the state will benefit from much of the
cloud cover and rain early in the day, with their high temperatures
expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s. Elsewhere in the state,
afternoon high temperatures, ahead of the cold front, are expected
to max out in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

The cold front will be across our eastern border by early Tuesday
and rain chances look to be confined to far eastern and southeast
portions of the CWA through the day Tuesday. Cooler and drier air
will begin moving in and high temperatures across the state will top
out in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. By Wednesday, high temperatures
are forecast in the lower to upper 70s.

An upper Low will dig southward across the region Wednesday. This
upper level forcing, along with low-level convergence along a
surface trough, will produce another round of widespread cloud cover
and rain/storm chances across the CWA by the mid-week period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone over the
state will be surrounded by ridges in place across the western US
and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US. This will effectively cut it
off from the mean flow.

This feature will remain over the state through late week. While
this low rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south and east. This setup will provide persistent
cloud cover, occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures
across Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
is likely to become Helene moves inland somewhere across portions of
north FL/southern GA. As these features remain surrounded by mid-
level ridges, this could lead to some mutual interaction between
systems across the region.

If these two features were to interact as depicted by the most
recent few model runs, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall in
close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below normal
temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low remains
nearby.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  80  60  78 /  60  10  10  30
Camden AR         68  85  64  81 /  40  20  20  30
Harrison AR       60  75  55  75 /  50  10  10  30
Hot Springs AR    66  86  63  82 /  40   0  30  30
Little Rock   AR  70  86  65  81 /  50   0  20  20
Monticello AR     72  87  65  82 /  40  30  10  30
Mount Ida AR      62  85  59  82 /  30   0  30  30
Mountain Home AR  62  76  57  76 /  60  10  10  20
Newport AR        67  80  61  76 /  70  10  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     69  85  64  80 /  50  20  20  30
Russellville AR   64  84  60  81 /  40  10  30  20
Searcy AR         67  83  62  79 /  60  10  20  30
Stuttgart AR      69  84  64  78 /  60  20  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...71