091
FXUS64 KLZK 162343 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Scattered, diurnally driven convection has developed across parts of
the north this afternoon. The upper high that has been the dominate
feature of late has moved far enough to the east to allow convection
to develop in the rather moist and unstable environment in place.
Convection is expected to die off later this evening and a return to
dry conditions for the overnight hours.

Aforementioned upper high will be located over the southeast CONUS
come Monday morning as troughing moves into the Pacific northwest.
Southerly flow between these two systems will continue to draw in
gulf moisture resulting in additional diurnal convection with POPS
higher Monday afternoon as an upper level impulse moves through.

Precipitation will be of the hit or miss variety and even where rain
does fall, amounts will be very high with most areas averaging under
a quarter of an inch. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, a stray strong storm or to can not be ruled out in this
type of environment.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler versus the past several days
with the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances. Still,
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge will be situated over the eastern US at the start of
the long term period with troughing noted across the West. Along the
south/southwestern periphery of the eastern ridge, the flow will be
from E-W along the Gulf Coast. This will allow a series of upper
waves to move inland along the TX/LA portion of the coast.
Regardless of actual tropical development in the Gulf this week, a
period of heavy rain and potential flooding is expected along the TX
coast.

Some low chances for diurnally driven activity will remain possible
on Wednesday across the state with temperatures remaining a bit
cooler than what has been seen recently. By late week and into the
weekend, the H500 ridge to the east of AR will gradually expand its
influence and once again encompass the state. Chances for afternoon
convection look to decrease and temperatures will likely increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Sfc high pressure wl be shifting Ewrd thru tonight, w/ incrsg high
cloud cover expected fm the S/E heading into Mon mrng. Expect some
covg of precip, including VCSH/TS to develop over Cntrl to Ern and
S/Ern AR Mon aftn, and have included VCTS groups accordingly.
Otherwise, incrsg cloud cover and light Srly winds wl be noted
thru the PD w/ VFR condns prevailing.

/72/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  88  72  87 /   0  50  10  30
Camden AR         73  91  71  86 /   0  50  10  30
Harrison AR       70  88  70  86 /   0  20   0  20
Hot Springs AR    73  90  71  89 /   0  40  10  30
Little Rock   AR  75  90  74  89 /   0  50  10  30
Monticello AR     73  90  73  86 /  10  70  10  30
Mount Ida AR      71  90  70  88 /   0  40  10  30
Mountain Home AR  72  88  71  86 /   0  30  10  30
Newport AR        76  90  73  87 /   0  50  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     74  90  73  87 /   0  50  10  30
Russellville AR   74  90  73  89 /   0  40  10  30
Searcy AR         73  90  72  87 /   0  50  10  30
Stuttgart AR      76  90  74  86 /   0  50  10  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72