Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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130 FXUS64 KLZK 200502 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A ridge of high pressure in the central and southern Plains will build in our direction during the near term. Under the ridge, summer temperatures are expected, with above average readings in the forecast the next couple of days. Conditions will remain mostly dry. As the ridge becomes dominant, large scale troughing will be noted over the western United States. On the leading edge of the troughing, a cold front will try to push toward Arkansas from the northwest tonight/Friday, but will not make it into the state. Even so, a stray shower or thunderstorm could affect northern/western sections of the state ahead of the front. On the heels of the front, yet another cold front will head this way as the period ends. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop up north of Little Rock on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 With H500 ridging to the southwest extending northeast over the state and sfc ridging in place just to the SE, another hot day is expected on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 90s F appear likely across parts of the state before the mid-level ridge is forced southward as a trough moves across the middle of the country. As the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the area, at the sfc a cold front will push into the state. While dry conditions will likely hold out for much of the state on Sunday, some rain chances will move into the area early next week. Temperatures will be a bit closer to normal behind the front as well. Near the end of the period it`s possible that a second H500 trough could move across the middle of the country with another cold front set to move through at the sfc. While this could provide additional cooler air to the state, available 12z model data provides lower confidence regarding the pattern by late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Expect VFR flight category over the entire forecast period from early Friday morning thru early Saturday morning. Surface winds across all sites will begin light and variable before becoming established out of the south-southwest later Friday morning. The northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK may see vicinity showers on Friday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 71 92 70 / 10 10 20 0 Camden AR 95 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 94 71 90 69 / 20 20 30 10 Hot Springs AR 97 72 96 71 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 95 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 96 70 96 69 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 93 71 91 70 / 10 10 20 10 Newport AR 90 71 90 70 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 96 72 95 71 / 0 10 10 0 Searcy AR 93 71 94 70 / 0 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 93 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...74