678
FXUS64 KLZK 240838
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A cdfrnt was noted acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA early Tues mrng,
and should cont to slowly move S/Ewrd thru the day today. After a
few days of unsettled wx, generally drier wx condns wl resume today,
at least briefly. Any precip activity should stay limited to
isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, as the frnt
slowly moves thru the region.

Aloft, a highly amplified upper lvl pattern wl be in place acrs the
CONUS w/ strong ridging building over the Cont Divide, and robust
troughing staying rooted over the Cntrl US. Thru the day Tues and
into Wed, guidance remains consistent on a lobe of this upper trof
bcmg detached fm the mean flow, resulting in a cutoff low centered
over the FA and greater Mid-South. An additional round of scattered
precip wl be possible thru the day Wed as another cdfrnt on the
periphery of sfc high pressure approaches, in tandem w/ the basal
region and vorticity max of the upper trof pivoting acrs the Natural
State.

Temps acrs the FA wl trend downwards towards more normal values Tues
into Wed, w/ aftn readings in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight
lows dipping into the low 50s acrs Nrn to N/Wrn AR, and low to mid
60s noted elsewhere.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A complex weather pattern is expected in the long term. At the
beginning of the period, a robust storm system aloft will be over
northeast Arkansas/southeast Missouri. The system will be wedged
between ridges of high pressure in the Plains and just off the mid
Atlantic Coast, and will have nowhere to go. Meanwhile, what should
be tropical system Helene will be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Through Friday, the storm system in our vicinity will likely wobble
around, with the tropical system forecast to make landfall in
Florida before weakening and heading northward. Models continue to
show some interaction between the two systems, and that could result
in moisture pulled in our direction and significant rainfall in or
near the state.

For now, there is still a potential for two to more than three
inches of rain in northern Arkansas Thursday/Friday. Granted, trends
are taking the axis of heaviest rain a little more to the north/east
with time. Some data does not support the wet scenario locally at
all, with downpours spreading through the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys, and staying out of areas farther west.

A lot will depend on where the system aloft wobbles. If the system
stays at home, or drifts to the south, then the rain will come. If
the system manages to edge to the east of the area, the rain will
follow.

By the weekend/early next week, the rain machine will not be so
impressive, with scattered showers/some thunder remaining. Our rain
chances will gradually decrease, with only spotty precipitation left
behind.

As far as temperatures, readings through much of the period will be
at/below seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Sfc frnt was noted acrs N/Wrn AR near 24/06Z, w/ low IFR CIGs
moving invof the frnt. VCSH activity was also developing ahead of
the frnt, and expect covg of precip to incrs acrs Nrn Cntrl AR to
N/Ern in the next few hrs. Otherwise, patchy fog wl be possible
acrs the FA, w/ MVFR/IFR VISBY`s persisting over Nrn terminals
thru 24/14Z. Thru the day Tues, condns should improve behind the
frnt, w/ skies staying mainly Bkn over the FA, and light Nrly
winds.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  60  77  59 /  10  20  20  10
Camden AR         86  63  80  59 /  10  30  30  10
Harrison AR       76  55  75  54 /  10  20  20  10
Hot Springs AR    86  63  82  59 /   0  40  20  10
Little Rock   AR  86  65  80  61 /   0  40  20  10
Monticello AR     88  65  80  61 /  10  10  30  10
Mount Ida AR      85  59  81  56 /   0  50  20  10
Mountain Home AR  77  56  77  56 /  10  20  20  10
Newport AR        80  61  77  58 /  10  20  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     86  63  79  59 /  10  20  30  10
Russellville AR   83  60  81  59 /   0  30  10  10
Searcy AR         83  62  78  59 /  10  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      83  64  78  59 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...72