040
FXUS64 KLZK 251842
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
142 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 1 PM CDT, visible satellite is showing some post-frontal high
clouds across southeastern Arkansas which are moving away from the
CWA and state. A trend of decreasing clouds and overall clearing
skies should continue into the overnight hours on Wednesday and the
early morning hours on Thursday.

THURSDAY:

In the upper lvls, a closed low which is cutoff from the overall
H500 flow pattern also known as a cutoff low will be positioned over
the vicinity to the northeast of the CWA over the bootheel of
Missouri and far northwestern Tennessee. During the day on Thursday,
although hundreds of miles apart, the interaction of this upper lvl
cutoff low will actually be pulled slowly southward over eastern
Arkansas and western Mississippi by the approaching and stronger
upper lvl low associated with Hurricane Helene at H500.

At the sfc, a trof will be present over the eastern part of the
state and present the opportunity of increased POPs to begin
overspreading into northeastern Arkansas later in the day.

Expect weather conditions to remain overall fair throughout the
majority of Thursday with an increase of POPs noted into
northeastern Arkansas later into the day. Temperatures with respect
to both low and high temperatures will be near normal compared to
climatological normals for late September.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:

Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall along the Florida Gulf
Coast, specifically the Big Bend region of Florida Panhandle as a
major hurricane on Thursday evening.

In the upper lvls, the closed low associated with Helene and the
cutoff low positioned over eastern Arkansas will begin to interact.
For a brief moment in time, after Helene makes landfall and begins
to slowly degrade losing strength after making landfall, the cutoff
low and the upper lvl low associated with Helene will share the same
pressure... at this moment, a interesting phenomena known in the
meteorology world as the Fujiwhara Effect will begin as both upper
lvl features will begin a dance of sorts around one another with
their dueling CCW flows. However, this dance will be short-lived as
Helene continues to become degraded and will become absorbed at H500
by the cutoff low over eastern Arkansas because the feature over
eastern Arkansas will be stronger and absorb the upper lvl low
associated with Helene.

As a result, expect an influx of moisture and increasing POP chances
across the CWA and state of Arkansas Thursday Night and continuing
into the day on Friday, especially across north-central and
northeastern parts of the state which are expected to experience
higher total rainfall amounts. Temperatures on Friday in respect to
high temperatures across most of the state will be on average 5
degrees below normal, but low temperatures will be near average for
late September. POP chances should slowly become confined to the
northeastern portion of the state over the weekend as the remnants
of Helene continue to weaken and the overall system becomes
transported eastward by an approaching cold front from the
northwest.

The greatest threat from the remnants of Helene will be
the rainfall; as of this forecast package latest forecast amounts
are in the vicinity of 2 to 3 inches of total rain across
northeastern Arkansas and decent gradient downward as you track
west back across the state. North-central, east-central, and
central Arkansas is on track to see upwards of 1 to 2 inches of
total rainfall. Elsewhere across the state, a tenth of an inch to
near an inch of total rainfall will be possible. Unfortunately,
at the moment, far western Arkansas and far southern Arkansas are
on par to receive the least total rainfall from the remnants of
Helene as a trace amount to around a quarter of an inch of rain is
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The merged storm system over the TN Valley will continue to produce
rain across portions of northern and eastern AR through Sunday
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will drop off pretty quickly over the
weekend. After Friday night, between Saturday and Monday, additional
rainfall will range from a trace across western portions of the
state to around one-quarter inch across northeast AR.

The storm system, and any of its impacts, will move well east of
Arkansas by Tuesday, making way for an upper ridge and surface high
pressure. High pressure will shift eastward from the central to
eastern states through the end of the week.

This air mass will bring cooler and drier air to the state by the
middle of next week. High temperatures will generally be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s, through the
weekend and early part of next week. Wednesday morning low temps
will be in the upper 40s across northern AR and in the 50s
elsewhere. High temperatures next Wednesday afternoon will top out
in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Expect VFR flight category over the period from early Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. No degradation of
CIGS or VSBY is anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  78  61  70 /   0  20  50  60
Camden AR         58  81  60  75 /   0   0  20  40
Harrison AR       54  76  57  71 /   0   0  20  40
Hot Springs AR    60  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  50
Little Rock   AR  62  82  63  74 /   0  10  40  50
Monticello AR     60  83  62  74 /   0   0  20  50
Mount Ida AR      55  81  58  76 /   0   0  20  40
Mountain Home AR  55  78  59  71 /   0  10  30  50
Newport AR        58  78  62  70 /   0  20  50  70
Pine Bluff AR     59  80  61  72 /   0  10  30  60
Russellville AR   58  81  61  75 /   0   0  30  40
Searcy AR         58  80  61  72 /   0  10  50  60
Stuttgart AR      59  80  62  72 /   0  10  40  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...74