831
FXUS64 KLZK 212256 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
556 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
northern and northeast Arkansas through late this evening, as a
short-wave trough moves across the southern Midwest region and
northern Arkansas. The main threats with this activity will be heavy
rain with potential for localized flooding.

The aforementioned short-wave trough is moving along anticyclonic
flow associated with a widespread High situated across much of
the southern and southeastern CONUS. With the exception of
north/northeast AR, the rest of the state is experiencing mainly
hot and dry conditions through much of the weekend, with high
temperatures in the 90s expected. A heat advisory is in effect
across much of central to western portions of the CWA through
Saturday evening, with heat index values between 105-110F
forecast.

Showers and potential for storms will return by Sunday afternoon,
across northern portions of the state, spreading across much of the
rest of Arkansas by Monday midday, as a cold front pushes eastward
across the region. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will keep
temperatures on the lower end across western and northern Arkansas
Monday, in the lower 70s to mid 80s. At this time, it looks like
central, southern and eastern Arkansas will have time to warm up to
the 90s Monday, before cloud cover and rain spread into these areas.
We can all look forward to much cooler air in the long term period
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of
the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its
way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge
southward. At the sfc, a cold front will be making its way across
the state. This front will usher in cooler temperatures.

Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level
trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS
Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff somewhere
in the vicinity of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and
west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW
toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool
temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periodic cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Some convection could still impact the NRN terminals this
evening...but most area should be dry overnight. Some additional
convection looks to redevelop for Sun late morning into the
afternoon hrs...mainly across NRN AR. Chances will then drop SE
Sun night into Mon beyond this TAF period. Winds should remain
less than 10 kts sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  91  70  83 /  20  30  20  50
Camden AR         70  93  70  89 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       71  88  66  73 /  30  50  50  80
Hot Springs AR    73  94  71  87 /  20  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  74  94  73  88 /  20  10  10  30
Monticello AR     72  94  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      71  93  70  85 /   0  10  10  60
Mountain Home AR  70  89  67  76 /  30  50  50  70
Newport AR        71  91  70  85 /  20  20  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     71  94  71  89 /  20   0   0  20
Russellville AR   73  94  71  84 /  20  20  20  60
Searcy AR         70  93  70  86 /  20  10  10  40
Stuttgart AR      72  93  72  88 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62