995
FXUS64 KLZK 221116
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level ridge will be over Arkansas today and centered over
Texas on Sunday. Expect subsidence to continue over the area and
result in a lack of rain chances today. A cold front will be able to
move into north Arkansas Sunday afternoon. This will bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the Missouri border Sunday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and Sunday will be
in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. With dew points remaining
mainly in the 60s today, heat indices should remain below advisory
criteria. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Sunday,
increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the
lower to mid 70s and in the 70s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overall the extended period looks rather benign when compared to the
short term. Little if any precipitation is expected and temperatures
will be cooling down to climatological averages or dare I say, even
a few degrees below. Guidance starts off in generally good agreement
before diverging as the period progresses. As such, will lean more
towards persistence this afternoon.

Period initiates with a highly amplified pattern in place. Pattern
will be dominated by persistent west coast ridging and a somewhat
weaker ridge over the eastern CONUS. In between is a strong cut off
upper low that spends the first 48 hours of the extended period just
spinning around the central plains before it is finally kicked out
by the aforementioned western ridge. Ridge never quite makes it here
with southwest flow aloft quickly turning around to the northwest
with time.

On the surface, front associated with the rain event from Christmas
Eve/Christmas day will be well to the east. As mentioned previously,
the upper low will still be spinning to the north of the state.

Based on the position/forecast of this feature, southwest winds
aloft will keep temperatures near average Tuesday but as it pulls
away on Wednesday, northwest flow returns with temperatures cooling
off in response. Biggest impact other than the cooler temps will be
some cloud cover rotating around the parent low Wednesday as the
trof axis finally lifts out. No measurable rain is expected although
a sprinkle or two can not be ruled out completely across the north.

After a slight and brief warm up Thursday, a weak cold front will
sweep through Thursday night and Friday. Guidance has this feature
washing out as it passes through with no impacts expected other than
to knock temperatures back a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure will continue over the area through the period. Fog
is noted at PBF and expect MVFR conditions for an hour. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     95  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  10
Camden AR         95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       92  75  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    96  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  96  78  98  78 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     96  76  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  93  74  93  73 /  10  10  20  10
Newport AR        94  76  96  76 /   0  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  76  98  77 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   96  75  98  77 /   0  10  10   0
Searcy AR         95  74  97  76 /   0  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      93  77  96  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...51