575
FXUS64 KLZK 251130 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Sfc cdfrnt was analyzed mvng acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA, w/ an
asctd band of precip positioned over Wrn to Cntrl AR. An upper
shortwave maneuvering acrs the Srn Cntrl US wl lkly sustain ongoing
precip thru daylight Wed mrng, w/ covg quickly waning beyond 12Z as
drier air behind the frnt continues to mix into the region.

Thru the day, covg of precip should continue to dissipate as the
frnt clears the state to the S/E. Cooler temps and drier air wl cont
to be ushered into the FA thru the day today, w/ most areas topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Heading into Thurs, attn wl turn to the tropics, as TC Helene is
expected to be nearing landfall invof the Big Bend region of FL,
sometime Thurs evng based on the latest forecast track guidance.
Post-landfall, model guidance has been quite consistent over the
past several days on a Fujiwhara type soln, in which the warm-core
low of Helene wl interact w/ a cutoff cold-core upper low in place
over the Mid-South. In the absence of stronger mid-lvl steering
flow, this phenomenon looks to centrifuge the remnants of Helene
inland and N/wrd quickly, before beginning to rotate around the
antecedent cold-core upper low. This should allow for some tropical
moisture and precip acrs at least the N/Ern half of the FA heading
into Fri.

Due to the forecast trajectory of Helene, most tropical-related
impacts are not anticipated, w/ the exception of some locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, based on where the
greatest forecast rainfall axis currently lies for the local region,
e.g. N/Ern AR to S/Ern MO, local river flooding impacts wl be
possible, including higher stages acrs the White, Black, and Cache
River basins.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Not many changes are noted this morning in the long term. At the
beginning of the period, a robust storm system aloft will be in
northern Mississippi. The system will be wedged between ridges of
high pressure in the southern Rockies and just off the mid Atlantic
Coast, and will have nowhere to go. Meanwhile, the remnants of
tropical system Helene will be inland, and probably over Georgia.

Models continue to show some interaction between the two systems on
Friday, with an eventual merger over the Tennessee Valley Friday
night/early Saturday. Moisture will build from the southeast states
in our direction, with the most significant moisture from central
into northeast sections of the state. This is where the forecast
calls for one to more than two inches of rain, with amounts dropping
off quickly in the western counties.

Over time and with each run of the models, rainfall totals have
gradually decreased. This is because the system aloft is more to the
east than originally progged, and the merger with Helene will also
likely occur to the east. By far, the heaviest rain/flooding will
occur from the Florida Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians.

Heading into the weekend, the merged system will be slow to exit the
region, with lingering clouds and isolated to scattered showers
Saturday/Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday/Tuesday.

As far as temperatures, readings will start off below seasonal, and
will gradually reach seasonal levels as the period progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Stream of high clouds and asctd mid to high lvl clouds conts to
move acrs Srn AR near 25/12Z. Covg of precip should begin to
dissipate acrs Srn AR as drier air filters into the region behind
a sfc cdfrnt, now over S/Ern AR. Patchy dense fog and asctd IFR
vsbys should persist near HRO thru 25/15Z. Elsewhere, MVFR condns,
in the absence of precip, should persist thru the PD.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  57  78  62 /  10  10  20  50
Camden AR         80  58  80  60 /  50   0  10  20
Harrison AR       76  53  76  57 /   0   0  10  40
Hot Springs AR    82  59  81  61 /  20   0  10  20
Little Rock   AR  82  61  81  64 /  10   0  10  30
Monticello AR     82  61  81  62 /  30   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      81  56  81  57 /  20   0  10  20
Mountain Home AR  77  56  77  60 /  10   0  20  50
Newport AR        78  58  77  62 /  10  10  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     80  58  79  61 /  30   0  10  30
Russellville AR   82  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  30
Searcy AR         80  58  79  62 /  10   0  20  40
Stuttgart AR      79  59  78  62 /  20   0  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...72