736
FXUS64 KLZK 231138
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The upper level ridge has become centered over Texas. An upper
trough moving into the northeast U.S. and weakening of the northeast
side of the high will allow a cold front to move into north
Arkansas. This will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the state today along and ahead of the front.
Humidity will increase today leading to elevated heat indices. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for today with heat indices over 105
degrees.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s and Monday will be
in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the 70s tonight and Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There are very few changes in the extended period as summer heat
will continue to be the major story with little relief expected.
Guidance remains steadfast in keeping temperatures well into the 90s
for the majority of the state with additional heat related headlines
certain.

Period initiates with stout H5 ridging extending from the four corners
region and into the mid south. Surface high pressure will be moving
through the Ohio Valley at the same time keeping low level south to
southwest flow in place and a continuous feed of moisture into the
region with elevated dew points.

Ridge axis looks to expand to the north and into the northern
Rockies by Wednesday which puts the region a weak northwest flow
aloft. Disturbance gets caught in said flow Tuesday afternoon but
only minimal precipitation chances are warrantied at this time.

Guidance continues to show some minimal relief in the Wed will be
mainlynesday and Thursday time frame as an pronounced upper wave
will drop through the aforementioned NW flow aloft. Wave will
bring scattered to possibly widespread showers and thunderstorms
to the region but even with the cloud cover and rain chances,
temperatures will only drop by a few degrees. However, dew points
will be lower across primarily the north.

In the wake of this wave, the upper ridge will build over the mid
South on Friday and the heat returns. Attention will then turn to
upper level troughing moving through the upper midwest. Guidance
attempts to drive a cold front through the region very late in the
period with some cooler and drier air in its wake. Discrepancies
between the models are always an issue that far out but the
potential for some break in the pattern will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The center of the upper ridge has moved into Texas. A cold front
will move into north Arkansas this afternoon and esentially stall.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected. VFR
conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  73  98  75 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         98  76  99  76 /  10  20  10   0
Harrison AR       94  71  97  74 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    98  76  98  76 /  20  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  98  78  99  79 /  20  20   0   0
Monticello AR     98  78  99  77 /  10  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      96  74  98  74 /  20  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  95  71  97  74 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        97  75  99  76 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  77  99  77 /  20  20  10   0
Russellville AR   97  76 100  77 /  20  10   0   0
Searcy AR         97  75  99  75 /  20  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      95  78  98  79 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ006>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...51