Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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561 FXUS64 KLZK 251706 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1206 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Sfc cdfrnt was analyzed mvng acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA, w/ an asctd band of precip positioned over Wrn to Cntrl AR. An upper shortwave maneuvering acrs the Srn Cntrl US wl lkly sustain ongoing precip thru daylight Wed mrng, w/ covg quickly waning beyond 12Z as drier air behind the frnt continues to mix into the region. Thru the day, covg of precip should continue to dissipate as the frnt clears the state to the S/E. Cooler temps and drier air wl cont to be ushered into the FA thru the day today, w/ most areas topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heading into Thurs, attn wl turn to the tropics, as TC Helene is expected to be nearing landfall invof the Big Bend region of FL, sometime Thurs evng based on the latest forecast track guidance. Post-landfall, model guidance has been quite consistent over the past several days on a Fujiwhara type soln, in which the warm-core low of Helene wl interact w/ a cutoff cold-core upper low in place over the Mid-South. In the absence of stronger mid-lvl steering flow, this phenomenon looks to centrifuge the remnants of Helene inland and N/wrd quickly, before beginning to rotate around the antecedent cold-core upper low. This should allow for some tropical moisture and precip acrs at least the N/Ern half of the FA heading into Fri. Due to the forecast trajectory of Helene, most tropical-related impacts are not anticipated, w/ the exception of some locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Additionally, based on where the greatest forecast rainfall axis currently lies for the local region, e.g. N/Ern AR to S/Ern MO, local river flooding impacts wl be possible, including higher stages acrs the White, Black, and Cache River basins. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Not many changes are noted this morning in the long term. At the beginning of the period, a robust storm system aloft will be in northern Mississippi. The system will be wedged between ridges of high pressure in the southern Rockies and just off the mid Atlantic Coast, and will have nowhere to go. Meanwhile, the remnants of tropical system Helene will be inland, and probably over Georgia. Models continue to show some interaction between the two systems on Friday, with an eventual merger over the Tennessee Valley Friday night/early Saturday. Moisture will build from the southeast states in our direction, with the most significant moisture from central into northeast sections of the state. This is where the forecast calls for one to more than two inches of rain, with amounts dropping off quickly in the western counties. Over time and with each run of the models, rainfall totals have gradually decreased. This is because the system aloft is more to the east than originally progged, and the merger with Helene will also likely occur to the east. By far, the heaviest rain/flooding will occur from the Florida Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians. Heading into the weekend, the merged system will be slow to exit the region, with lingering clouds and isolated to scattered showers Saturday/Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday/Tuesday. As far as temperatures, readings will start off below seasonal, and will gradually reach seasonal levels as the period progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Expect VFR flight category over the period from early Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. No degradation of CIGS or VSBY is anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 78 62 70 / 10 20 50 70 Camden AR 58 80 60 74 / 0 10 20 40 Harrison AR 53 76 57 68 / 0 10 40 60 Hot Springs AR 59 81 61 74 / 0 10 20 50 Little Rock AR 61 81 64 73 / 0 10 30 60 Monticello AR 61 81 62 74 / 0 10 20 40 Mount Ida AR 56 81 57 75 / 0 10 20 50 Mountain Home AR 56 77 60 70 / 0 20 50 60 Newport AR 58 77 62 69 / 10 20 50 70 Pine Bluff AR 58 79 61 73 / 0 10 30 60 Russellville AR 58 81 60 74 / 0 10 30 60 Searcy AR 58 79 62 72 / 0 20 40 70 Stuttgart AR 59 78 62 72 / 0 10 40 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...74