255
FXUS64 KLZK 250850
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

TUESDAY (Today):

The upper lvl ridge remains fixated over the Southwestern region of
the CONUS with a continuation of above normal temperatures expected
to remain across the Natural State on average 8-10 degrees above
average compared to climatological normals expected across the
state.

At the sfc, a dry stationary front will remained stalled along the
Arkansas/Mississippi before moving away from the state back to the
east. Expect surface winds to remain predominately out of the south-
southwest to southwest across the state which will continue to usher
in hot temperatures along with enough moisture via the Gulf of
Mexico that will transpire to dewpoint temperatures (forecast
Tuesday afternoon varying from the lower 60s to lower 70s statewide)
leading the need for heat headlines once again meeting Heat Advisory
criteria across the entire state of heat index values reaching and
exceeding 105 degrees with an Excessive Heat Warning being needed
across the eastern potion of Arkansas as heat index values will meet
or exceed 110 degrees.

Heat safety will need to be exercised on Tuesday as a near carbon
copy day is expected with conditions to be similar to temperatures
felt statewide on Monday.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

In the upper lvls, a shortwave approaches the state in conjunction
with an approaching cold front at the sfc that will near the state
Wednesday morning and move through the state during the day on
Wednesday. Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will
increase throughout the day on Wednesday provide increased POPs
across the CWA overall throughout the day. Compressional heating
will be possible as the cold front approaches the area and heat
headlines may be needed across the southern half of the state.

It is important to understand that this cold front will in no way be
cold, but only provide us with a slight and quick break away from
the magnitude of hot and dry weather the entire CWA has been
experiencing.

Precipitation amounts are not expected to amount to much with most
locations only seeing from a trace amount to as much as a couple
tenths of an inch of rainfall over the period of Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Expect statewide temperatures to rebound to their
above normal values by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Guidance continues to show a continuation of the hot conditions
across the forecast area with only minimal relief, which will occur
early in the period. Rain chances will also be minimal with guidance
showing the upper ridge building right over the region early next
week.

Period initiates with some slightly cooler conditions in place in
the wake of the weak boundary that moves through Wednesday. Highs
will only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s as northerly winds will
persist. Heat index values will likely not reach criteria for any
type of headlines.

The relief will likely be short lived as the upper level ridge will
be shifting from the desert southwest Thursday to the south central
CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise once again
Friday and Saturday with highs back into the mid to upper 90s. Heat
related headlines seem likely across parts of the county warning
area once again.

Models do try to move a weak cold front through the region sometime
Sunday into Sunday night which will knock temperatures down but only
by a few degrees. Rain is not expected to be widespread with the
upper ridge continuing to build over the area but some areas could
possibly squeeze out upwards of a quarter of an inch of rain.

Period will end with the upper ridge building over the region with
plenty of moisture streaming into the area with pronounced southerly
flow. Temperatures will likely be approaching triple digits in some
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Expect VFR conditions over the entire forecast period from early
Tuesday morning thru early Wednesday morning. Surface winds across
all terminals will begin light and variable to light and out the
south to south-southwest. On Tuesday morning, surface winds will
become established out of the southwest to south-southwest from
around 7 to 10 knots. The northern site of KHRO can expect gusty
surface winds later Tuesday morning in excess of 18 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     99  76  92  71 /  10  20  70  10
Camden AR         98  75  95  73 /  20  20  50  30
Harrison AR       95  71  89  68 /  10  20  70   0
Hot Springs AR    99  76  96  73 /  20  10  50  20
Little Rock   AR  99  79  95  75 /  10  20  60  20
Monticello AR     99  78  94  74 /  10  20  60  40
Mount Ida AR      97  74  94  72 /  20  10  50  20
Mountain Home AR  97  72  89  69 /  10  20  70   0
Newport AR        99  77  94  72 /   0  20  70  20
Pine Bluff AR     99  78  94  73 /  10  20  60  30
Russellville AR   99  76  94  74 /  10  20  60  10
Searcy AR         99  76  94  72 /  10  20  70  20
Stuttgart AR      98  79  93  74 /  10  20  60  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-033-034-046-047-057-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74