503
FXUS64 KLZK 250504
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1204 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

This morning it looked as if our afternoon heat index values were
going to exceed 110 in a number of areas, so we upgraded portions of
the heat advisory to an excessive heat warning.

The upper level ridge across the area continues to retrograde toward
the swrn US. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area
again tomorrow. We have an existing heat advisory in effect thru
late tomorrow, and at the moment it doesn`t look like heat
indices will be hot enough to warrant another excessive heat
advisory...although we will have to take a close look at the
anticipated afternoon conditions tomorrow morning.

Some changes are on the way. As the ridge continues to retrograde
over the southwestern US, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop
across the area, and a surface cold front will start to push into
the area Wednesday. The cold front isn`t actually `cold` per se, but
will bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the
reason...emphasis on `slight`. However, it should be enough to kick
of some showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, with
POPs across the area in the 40-60 pct range on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Once again, hot temperatures will headline the long term fcst into
the new month.

Mean H500 ridging wl remain in place over the Cont Divide thru the
end of the week, before upper flow transitions to bcmg more zonal
acrs the CONUS. Initially, the primary upper level high and asctd
greater anomalous H500 heights wl remain displaced to the west of
the FA, centered over the Desert S/W regions, w/ regionally hot and
humid condns persisting locally.

Some relief fm the heat is expected again on Thurs, after rain and a
weak cdfrnt passage on Wed, w/ area temps topping out in the upper
80s to low 90s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR, respectively.

Fri thru Sat, temps wl be on the rise again to the mid to upper 90s,
w/ the upper closed high shifting E/wrd fm the Desert S/W, and
centering over the Srn Cntrl US. Stronger perturbed upper flow acrs
the Nrn US is expected to recede towards the US/Canada border.
Greater synoptic subsidence via diff anti-cyclonic VA along the
inflection point of upper ridging/troughing over the Cntrl to Nrn
Plains should result in a strong sfc high developing. This sfc high
pressure is progged to move S/Ewrd acrs the Midwest and OH River
Valley, to the Nrn periphery of the FA. Another weak cdfrnt may
bring some slightly cooler temps and incrsg rain chances to portions
of Nrn to Cntrl AR late Sun into Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Expect VFR conditions over the entire forecast period from early
Tuesday morning thru early Wednesday morning. Surface winds across
all terminals will begin light and variable to light and out the
south to south-southwest. On Tuesday morning, surface winds will
become established out of the southwest to south-southwest from
around 7 to 10 knots. The northern site of KHRO can expect gusty
surface winds later Tuesday morning in excess of 18 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  74  91  71 /  10  10  60  10
Camden AR         98  76  95  72 /  10  10  40  20
Harrison AR       96  71  88  68 /  10  20  60  10
Hot Springs AR    98  76  96  72 /  10  10  40  10
Little Rock   AR  99  79  94  75 /  10  10  40  20
Monticello AR     98  78  94  74 /  10  10  50  30
Mount Ida AR      96  74  94  71 /  10  10  40  10
Mountain Home AR  97  73  87  69 /  10  20  60  10
Newport AR       100  76  93  72 /  10  20  60  10
Pine Bluff AR     98  77  94  73 /  10  10  50  20
Russellville AR   98  76  94  73 /  10  10  50  10
Searcy AR         98  75  94  71 /  10  10  50  20
Stuttgart AR      98  79  93  74 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74