340
FXUS64 KMAF 231945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

As noted below in the aviation section, a quasi-stationary
clearing line bisects the CWA, with mostly cloudy skies extending
southeast of a Gail to Odessa to Valentine line. Moist isentropic
upglide will commence later this evening as a short wave trough
approaches from the west and induces a return to southeasterly
winds just off the deck. This will serve two purposes: the first
is to keep the clouds across the southeastern CWA more or less
intact and the second is to promote the development of fog just to
the north and west of the clearing line, where radiational
cooling and a collapse of the low- level T/Td spreads will promote
efficient formation. There is the low (< 25 percent) potential of
showers and thunderstorms overnight in between I-10 and I-20 as
well, but QPF will be spotty at best. Temperatures overnight will
fall into the upper 50s to lower 70s with light and variable winds
becoming southeasterly as we head toward sunrise.

Fog and low clouds will persist through the mid morning hours
Tuesday over the southern Permian Basin; otherwise, skies will be
mostly sunny. There is the outside (< 25 percent) chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Highs Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with light east to
southeast winds. Tuesday night should be nearly a carbon copy
(minus the fog chances) of tonight`s conditions, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Deterministic and ensemble clusters depict broad troughing to the
east of the area as secondary shortwave trough amplifies east
over the ArkLaTex within larger long wave troughing stretching
from the Great Lakes to Southern Great Plains and Southern
Mississippi River Valley. A surface cold front associated with
this trough will move through the area Wednesday afternoon, with
cold air advection in its wake. However, with clearing skies
allowing for diurnal heating, we are expecting near to above
normal temperatures as high pressure settles in, mostly in the 80s
with 70s in higher elevations and 90s near the Rio Grande.
Heights and thicknesses build east from the western CONUS late
this week into this weekend, with a warming trend ensuing. Large
scale subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances and
keep conditions dry, with temperatures in the 80s and above
Thursday through next Monday, and highs rising into the 90s again
making an appearance over parts of the Permian Basin, along the
Pecos River and over the Upper Trans Pecos, in addition to near
the Rio Grande. Even as highs will be above average, they will
remain cool enough that lows will still drop into the 50s and 60s
for most of the area each night Wednesday night through next
Monday night under mostly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A clearing line is noted on satellite extending southwest-
northeast from roughly Valentine through Pecos to Snyder.
Southeast of this line, MVFR to IFR conditions have been stubborn
to lift, with VFR conditions noted to the northwest of this line.
We expect conditions to improve to VFR at KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ
during the early afternoon hours, but MVFR conditions are expected
to persist at KFST. There`s abundant signals across the short-
range model guidance that IFR to LIFR conditions will develop
along and north of this boundary before daybreak, impacting KMAF
in the 24/11Z to 24/15Z range. There is strong (> 80 percent)
confidence that KMAF will fall into the IFR range by 11Z, with
medium (~ 40 percent) confidence that LIFR conditions including
visibilities at or below 1/4SM within the same time frame at KMAF.
Conditions should remain VFR elsewhere, with conditions becoming
VFR at KMAF after 24/15Z. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  62  88  65 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 81  60  89  62 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                   82  67  89  68 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            78  64  89  63 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           75  59  82  61 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                    78  59  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    76  59  84  58 /  20  20  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  63  87  65 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                   77  64  87  65 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                     80  64  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...70