Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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797 FXUS64 KMAF 201708 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1208 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Much of the area will remain under the influence of high pressure over central Texas today. Clear to partly cloudy skies and southerly winds will send highs into the 90s for all but the higher elevations in the CWA. A deep upper low over the western United States will create enough instability in the western fringes of the area that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from southeastern New Mexico and into the Big Bend which is the only area that could see rainfall today. Things change Saturday as the upper low moves east and closer to New Mexico and West Texas. Instability, moisture, and shear spread east creating the potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening across southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings show that there is a limiting factor in the form of a stubborn cap that may not erode during the afternoon. Therefore the threat is conditional...storms should struggle to form but any that do could become severe with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. See the SPC SWODY2 for more information. Increasing clouds will keep the temperatures down a few degrees Saturday from today which will be the last above normal temperature day in the forecast thanks to a pattern shift on Sunday. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 In exciting news for the long term forecast period, rain chances are expected throughout much of next week. This pattern will be supported by broad troughing developing across the Great Plains to the Great Lakes with embedded shortwaves repeatedly moving through this. The first of these shortwaves is set to move across the Great Plains into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. This should push a cold front through the region, this further aides in supporting rainfall potential, while bringing cooler air into the area. Forecast guidance begins to differ with the exact evolution of this weather pattern beyond the initial trough. GFS and GEFS ensembles keep the pattern more progressive with overall cooler temperatures and increased rainfall potential. ECMWF and EPS on the other hand, have a slower pattern with a ridge developing across south Texas. This solution would keep temperatures a bit warmer with less rainfall potential. Regardless of the exact evolution, a much cooler and wetter pattern is expected compared to the last week or so. Each day can expect temperatures near to slightly below normal with periodic rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon hours. Potential rainfall in the forecast always remains a welcomed sight. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail most terminals for the next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at times during the afternoon. Patchy stratus is anticipated Saturday morning, w/brief MVFR cigs possible KMAF. Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a cu field this afternoon KMAF/KFST/KINK, w/bases 5-10 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 93 74 87 / 0 0 20 40 Carlsbad 71 93 64 86 / 20 30 20 10 Dryden 73 94 74 92 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Stockton 71 95 72 92 / 0 20 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 66 86 62 81 / 30 20 10 10 Hobbs 69 90 67 84 / 10 30 40 30 Marfa 64 91 64 88 / 0 30 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 72 91 73 86 / 0 10 20 40 Odessa 73 91 74 86 / 0 10 30 40 Wink 72 96 72 90 / 0 30 30 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44