678
FXUS64 KMAF 271936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to
West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. However, sporadic mid/high cloud may play
hob w/afternoon temperatures, knocking a degree or two off highs.
CAMs suggest convective chances will be a struggle this
afternoon/evening, as instability looks tepid.

Tonight, a 35+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with
partly cloudy skies to retard radiational cooling, once again
keeping overnight lows unseasonably warm.

Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase,
adding a couple of degrees to today`s highs and yielding the warmest
day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal.  If
there`s a day this forecast that warrants Heat Advisories, this is
it.  As such, we`ve issued Heat Advisories for mainly mountains and
river valleys.  The mid shift can add or subtract as necessary.
W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances
over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today`s, but
not by much.

Friday night, what little convection there is will diminish w/loss
of daytime heating.  A stronger, 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop,
and will once again combine w/cloud cover for another uncomfortable
night of temperatures ~ 10 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The short of the long term forecast is that a typical summer pattern
continues to be expected. Upper level ridging remains this weekend
and into next week over Texas and much of the Southern US. This will
keep temperatures a few degrees above normal in the upper 90s to low
100s for most through the extended. Continued southerly to
southeasterly flow in the low levels will keep moisture extending
across the region. Rain chances will be best to the west over the
higher terrain each afternoon and early evening. Long range guidance
continues to show a monsoon season setup with a ridge moving over
the Four Corners region late next week.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases
8-9 kft AGL, and a lesser one near the end of the forecast period,
w/bases 7-8 kft AGL.  Chances of convection are slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 105  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77 104  77 102 /  10  20  10  20
Dryden                   75 102  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 105  76 100 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  95  75  93 /  20  30  20  30
Hobbs                    74 103  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    65  98  66  98 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     76 104  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77 104  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 107  78 104 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Friday for Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-Scurry-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44