357
FXUS64 KMAF 271055
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
555 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Another warm night is underway, but we are watching and outflow
boundary left over from storms that occurred to our north and
west. This boundary will likely wash out somewhere across the
Permian Basin later this morning with little fanfare. Most
locations are still in the 80s so will monitor for possible record
warm lows (came within one degree at MAF this morning). Upper
ridging will flatten across the Southern Plains today in response
to an upper trough moving across the Northern Rockies. You won`t
see a noticeable difference in todays weather other than less
storm activity across the west. High temperatures will still climb
into the 100s for most locations outside of the higher terrain.
We will near Heat Advisory criteria in a couple of locations once
again, but it will not quite be widespread enough. Isolated storms
are expected along and west of an Artesia to Presidio line by
afternoon where better monsoonal moisture lies. As we saw today,
there will be a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
with these storms.

Friday looks like another hot one as the low level thermal ridge
amplifies across the region. Many locations in the plains could
approach or surpass the 105 degree mark with locations along the
river valleys near 110. Heat Advisories will likely be needed.
Expect another round of storms out west with a bit more coverage
than what we will see today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper ridging will strengthen this weekend over the Southern Plains,
but there is some good news. Southeasterly flow at the surface will
increase in response to a trough moving across the Northern Plains.
This will help shove some of the heat to our west with many
locations seeing highs back below 100. We will still see rain
chances highest across the higher terrain each afternoon this
weekend. A disturbance over E NM and the TX PH could help a few
storms make it into the northern Permian Basin late Saturday, but
most locations will remain dry.

Temperatures start to tick upward once again early next week as a
low level thermal ridge shifts east into our area. Isolated storm
chances remain out west Monday and Tuesday as the current monsoonal
pattern continues. There are signs in the long range models
indicating the upper ridge could break down across the area later
next week allowing for slight cooling and more widespread PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An outflow boundary continues to wash out across the Permian Basin
and winds will return to the south shortly after sunrise. VFR will
prevail through the period as winds become gusty by late morning.
Isolated storms are expected near KCNM with other terminals
remaining quiet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              104  77 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  77 103  76 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                   99  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  75 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  73  95  74 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                    99  74 102  73 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    96  64  99  66 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport    101  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  101  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    104  77 107  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29