Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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947 FXUS64 KMAF 251945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper ridging overhead continues to dominate the weather in the short term, though the center of the ridge has nudged westward some compared to yesterday. The two main effects of this is slightly more low/mid level moisture but also a north-northwesterly column-mean wind. While the typical summertime scattered storms are expected over the Davis Mountains, additional scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon across portions of Eddy and Lea counties. While the mean wind may allow a storm or two to sneak over into the northern Permian Basin, most CAMs indicate any storms will die off shortly after crossing into Texas, so a bulk of the storm activity (outside the Davis Mountains area) will be limited to southeastern New Mexico. Temperature-wise, many spots are already into the upper 90s and 100s again today. It`ll be close, but Midland Int`l may kiss the century mark today for the first time since June 7 (I`m not complaining...). If for whatever reason Midland doesn`t hit 100 degrees today, we likely will tomorrow as temperatures will likely be a touch warmer owing to a slightly stronger ridge that wobbles a bit back to the east. Even still, similarly to today, will maintain no heat headlines with only a few isolated spots near criteria. The Big Bend and the Pecos River valley will be the hottest spots, topping out between 105 and 110+. A stronger ridge argues for less shower activity, once again limited to only the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Not many changes to the forecast, as the upper ridge ridges, and then ridges some more. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Chihuahua, flattening somewhat due to an upper trough traversing the US/Canadian border. Highs will come in ~ 6-8 F above normal, and a heat advisory or two may be needed. East-southeasterly upslope flow will result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher terrain during the afternoon/evening. These areas continue to be our most drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks rather paltry, so lightning starts remain a concern. A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows Thursday night well-above normal. In fact, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended. Friday, the ridge continues to elongate, expanding east to the Carolinas, but not before increasing thicknesses across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, yielding perhaps the warmest day in the extended, with triple-digit highs most areas, warranting more widespread heat advisories. Upslope flow will again result in a chance of afternoon/evening convection, mainly over the higher terrain. Beginning Saturday, the ridge refocuses to the southeastern CONUS, and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses decrease. Sunday is on track to be the coolest day this forecast, when highs top out right around normal, if not a degree or two above. Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as the ridge recenters invof the ArklaTex. Diurnally-driven convection will be possible each day Saturday through Tuesday over the higher terrain due to upslope flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR prevails throughout the period. Winds are somewhat gusty at MAF throughout the afternoon, but gusts pick up this evening at all Texas terminals due to the LLJ. The gusty southeasterly winds diminish between 09-12z Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 104 77 101 / 20 20 10 20 Dryden 77 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 77 102 74 100 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 76 95 72 93 / 30 40 30 20 Hobbs 74 102 72 99 / 20 0 10 0 Marfa 67 98 64 96 / 10 40 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 77 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 79 106 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...16