Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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050 FXUS64 KMAF 270802 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Another warm night is underway, but we are watching and outflow boundary left over from storms that occurred to our north and west. This boundary will likely wash out somewhere across the Permian Basin later this morning with little fanfare. Most locations are still in the 80s so will monitor for possible record warm lows (came within one degree at MAF this morning). Upper ridging will flatten across the Southern Plains today in response to an upper trough moving across the Northern Rockies. You won`t see a noticeable difference in todays weather other than less storm activity across the west. High temperatures will still climb into the 100s for most locations outside of the higher terrain. We will near Heat Advisory criteria in a couple of locations once again, but it will not quite be widespread enough. Isolated storms are expected along and west of an Artesia to Presidio line by afternoon where better monsoonal moisture lies. As we saw today, there will be a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with these storms. Friday looks like another hot one as the low level thermal ridge amplifies across the region. Many locations in the plains could approach or surpass the 105 degree mark with locations along the river valleys near 110. Heat Advisories will likely be needed. Expect another round of storms out west with a bit more coverage than what we will see today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper ridging will strengthen this weekend over the Southern Plains, but there is some good news. Southeasterly flow at the surface will increase in response to a trough moving across the Northern Plains. This will help shove some of the heat to our west with many locations seeing highs back below 100. We will still see rain chances highest across the higher terrain each afternoon this weekend. A disturbance over E NM and the TX PH could help a few storms make it into the northern Permian Basin late Saturday, but most locations will remain dry. Temperatures start to tick upward once again early next week as a low level thermal ridge shifts east into our area. Isolated storm chances remain out west Monday and Tuesday as the current monsoonal pattern continues. There are signs in the long range models indicating the upper ridge could break down across the area later next week allowing for slight cooling and more widespread PoPs. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Convection continues to diminish with the loss of daytime heating, but we are monitoring an outflow boundary moving in from the TX PH. This boundary is expected to dissipate as storms to the north move to the east into OK. VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds becoming gusty by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 77 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 77 103 76 / 10 10 20 20 Dryden 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 73 95 74 / 20 20 30 30 Hobbs 99 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 96 64 99 66 / 10 10 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 104 77 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29