Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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098 FXUS64 KMAF 261945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple- digit highs most locations. Convection that developed overnight has mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it`s needed most. Despite decent low level moisture out there, models are pretty penurious on QPF, but beggars can`t be choosers, and we`ll take what we can get. This activity will slowly diminish overnight w/loss of daytime heating. Despite a relatively decrepit LLJ (~ 25 kts), partly cloudy skies will retard radiational cooling, for another night of unseasonably warm lows ~ 8-10 F above normal. Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday. This portends good news for those who don`t like the heat, as thicknesses will come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than today`s. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the evening hours. Thursday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight--a feeble LLJ offset by a few clouds for overnight lows once again 8-10 F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Not many changes to the forecast. Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Texas, flattened due to an upper trough traversing the US/Canadian border. As such, thicknesses will be maximized, resulting in the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10F above normal. A heat advisory or two may be needed. East-southeasterly upslope flow will result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher terrain during the afternoon/overnight. These areas continue to be our most drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks meager, so lightning starts remain a concern. A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows Friday night well-above normal. In fact, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended. Saturday, the ridge develops eastward, re-centering roughly over the ArklaTex, and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses decrease. From here on out, temperatures are a subtle matter of where the ridge ends up each day. Sunday is on track to be the coolest day this forecast, when highs top out from at to 2-3 degrees above normal. Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as thicknesses increase slightly, with a slight cooldown Wednesday as the ridge shifts more towards the southeast CONUS. Diurnally-driven convection will be possible each day over the higher terrain due to upslope flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at times. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases starting 4.5-5 kft AGL, and at the end of the forecast period, w/bases 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection will be possible this afternoon/evening KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 77 102 77 103 / 40 10 10 20 Dryden 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 101 76 104 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 93 74 95 / 50 20 20 30 Hobbs 74 100 74 102 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 65 96 65 99 / 30 10 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 78 105 77 107 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44