176
FXUS64 KMAF 271140
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Locally, quiescent weather remains the rule as a ridge of high
pressure dominates the region. To the east, Hurricane Helene has
made landfall, and continues northward across Georgia early this
morning. The track of Helene will be dictated by a broad low
pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley, and
deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in agreement that the
Fujiwhara effect will result in the aforementioned low and the
remnants of Helene merging over the next 6 to 12 hours. The
trough will remain fairly broad and stagnant into the weekend,
resulting in prolific rainfall across portions of the Southeast,
while maintaining somewhat of a blocking pattern and keeping our
weather as quiet as can be for this time of year.

A weak cold front is progged to move into the area this
afternoon, though will arrive with little fanfare aside from an
easterly wind shift, with subtle compressional warming ahead of
the feature actually resulting in warmer temperatures today than
yesterday. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most, about 4 to 5 degrees above normal for late
September. Tonight, lows once again drop into the 60s for most,
though the Marfa Plateau and locations across the Davis Mountains
may flirt with the upper 40s early Saturday morning. Thereafter,
the pattern remains relatively unchanged to start the weekend,
with highs Saturday similar to today with plenty of sunshine and a
light breeze - great for those with outdoor plans!

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

NBM grids show no rain throughout the extended for any place in
the CWA. Deterministic ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and ICON models show
1000-500 mb thicknesses remaining above 570 decameters, so we can
expect warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. LREF TLE-
NH Grand Ensemble and ensemble clusters indicate mid to upper
ridging centered west of the area persisting into the end of the
long term. Surface high pressure will keep skies clear, while
ridging aloft centered over the western CONUS keeps the area from
experiencing southerly return flow and keeping temperatures from
getting too warm. Highs in the 80s and low 90s are forecast each
day, triple digits only present right along the Rio Grande, with
lows falling into the 50s and 60s. Dew point temperatures will
also remain in the 50s and 40s western regions, so temperatures
will feel pleasant and not humid. WPC surface analysis indicates
any fronts will stay well to the north of the area, with short
wave troughs more active in progressive northern stream flow over
the northern CONUS, especially Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Great Plains along the US Canada international border. The main
surface feature of interest will be lee troughing over SE NM into
westernmost parts of TX, but near surface winds will remain out of
the south or southeast even west of this surface troughing. With
daytime heating and topographically induced valley and mountain
flows along with nearby surface troughing, gusty winds up to 20
mph are currently indicated in grids during the afternoon each day
over the Davis Mountains into the northern Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  62  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   90  65  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  62  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  64  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    90  60  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     90  62  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   90  63  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     93  64  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84