Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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342 FXUS64 KMAF 271639 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1139 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Another warm night is underway, but we are watching and outflow boundary left over from storms that occurred to our north and west. This boundary will likely wash out somewhere across the Permian Basin later this morning with little fanfare. Most locations are still in the 80s so will monitor for possible record warm lows (came within one degree at MAF this morning). Upper ridging will flatten across the Southern Plains today in response to an upper trough moving across the Northern Rockies. You won`t see a noticeable difference in todays weather other than less storm activity across the west. High temperatures will still climb into the 100s for most locations outside of the higher terrain. We will near Heat Advisory criteria in a couple of locations once again, but it will not quite be widespread enough. Isolated storms are expected along and west of an Artesia to Presidio line by afternoon where better monsoonal moisture lies. As we saw today, there will be a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with these storms. Friday looks like another hot one as the low level thermal ridge amplifies across the region. Many locations in the plains could approach or surpass the 105 degree mark with locations along the river valleys near 110. Heat Advisories will likely be needed. Expect another round of storms out west with a bit more coverage than what we will see today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper ridging will strengthen this weekend over the Southern Plains, but there is some good news. Southeasterly flow at the surface will increase in response to a trough moving across the Northern Plains. This will help shove some of the heat to our west with many locations seeing highs back below 100. We will still see rain chances highest across the higher terrain each afternoon this weekend. A disturbance over E NM and the TX PH could help a few storms make it into the northern Permian Basin late Saturday, but most locations will remain dry. Temperatures start to tick upward once again early next week as a low level thermal ridge shifts east into our area. Isolated storm chances remain out west Monday and Tuesday as the current monsoonal pattern continues. There are signs in the long range models indicating the upper ridge could break down across the area later next week allowing for slight cooling and more widespread PoPs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases 8-9 kft AGL, and a lesser one near the end of the forecast period, w/bases 7-8 kft AGL. Chances of convection are slim-to-none. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 106 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 77 103 77 101 / 10 20 10 20 Dryden 75 102 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 105 76 99 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 20 30 Hobbs 74 103 74 100 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 65 98 67 97 / 10 30 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 76 103 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 103 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 107 78 102 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...44