264
FXUS64 KMAF 131102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be
pushed to the east slightly. For much of the area, this means
less cloud cover and temperatures several degrees higher than
yesterday. Most spots will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s.
The Big Bend being the hottest spot reaching into the 110s. The
inherited Heat Advisory will remain as is given the aforementioned
temperatures. Southeast flow continues through this morning and
will aid in keeping some low level moisture over western zones.
Isolated storms will be possible from near the border to the north
into SE NM with some agreement in current hi-res guidance. Any
accumulations will be light overall.

Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in
the low to mid 70s. Higher elevations cooling into the 60s. The
ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies.
Better rain chances appear over the Davis Mountains and into SE NM
Friday afternoon. Once again, precipitation amounts will be
limited as any activity will be isolated in nature. Highs areawide
reach into the upper 90s to low 100s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday evening, lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible
across western areas as a shortwave passes to the north of the
region, though will generally be on a downward trend given the
loss of heating. As the aforementioned shortwave translates
eastward across the Texas Panhandle and into the Central Plains by
Saturday morning, subsidence will once again be the rule across
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Deterministic guidance and
cluster analyses remain in good agreement regarding the evolution
of the upper pattern, with flow aloft progged to transition to
quasi-zonal on Saturday, and southwesterly on Sunday as ridging
develops over the east coast and a deepening trough takes shape to
the west. Beneath the western trough, a subtropical ridge of high
pressure extending from west of Baja across northern Mexico and
into Texas will largely keep a lid on any potential convection
through the weekend and into early next week, with the exception
of the Davis Mountains where a few diurnally-driven storms are
possible most afternoons in the extended.

As far as temperatures are concerned, given the fairly stagnant
pattern, highs in the upper 90s and 100s and lows in the upper 60s
and 70s can be expected each day through Tuesday, with potential
prolonged Heat Advisory conditions for locations west of the Pecos
River. Persistent southeasterly surface flow will maintain some
semblance of low-level moisture across the area, which will keep
afternoon temperatures least a few degrees cooler than they might
otherwise become in this pattern, especially across the plains.
Heading into midweek, guidance indicates potential for a
disturbance to impinge upon South Texas, which could send
additional moisture into our neck of the woods, and cool
temperatures down a bit, a little closer to normal. Stay tuned.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR remains through the period. Southeasterly winds continue through
this morning. Gusts pick up this afternoon. TS possible near CNM/HOB
this afternoon, but not included in issuance due to low confidence
on timing/location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  74  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                105  74 101  73 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                  100  76  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           103  74 100  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           98  72  94  70 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                   101  70  97  70 /  10  10   0  20
Marfa                    99  60  96  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    105  75 102  76 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...93