Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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826 FXUS64 KMAF 150442 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Current radar is picking up some echoes in southeastern NM as well as the Big Bend. However surface observations are not picking up any rainfall so the radar echoes are likely dense tropical altostratus streaming into the area from TS Ileana in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico. The abundant, and thick, cloud cover is putting a damper on temperatures today as readings have hardly budged in the past three hours. If we can`t get rainfall, then cooler temperatures will have to do and we will enjoy what we can get. Models are showing upper level winds becoming less favorable for this tropical fetch of moisture to continue and we should see some clearing overnight and into Sunday. Less clouds tomorrow means more heating and highs should be a few degrees warmer and any rain chances should be gone. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Ensemble model analysis indicates that the forecast upper low/short wave trough over the western CONUS will progress slowly east northeastward. An upper level ridge will remain over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico through much of next week. Confidence is high (> 80th percentile) that surface temperatures, especially highs, will be unseasonably warm through Thursday, but a change is in the air for next weekend. During much of the work week, highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to 102 to 107 at Rio Grande Village are forecast. Overnight lows will be warm as well, with lows in the mid 50s at higher elevations to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. In fact, with a modicum of moisture in the air, lows may flirt with record warmth at KMAF! The upper low/short wave trough (it`s hard to determine at this time what form this trough will take) will approach the region Friday, and with it comes an increase in precipitation chances, mainly across southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, in closer proximity to an approaching weak cold front and better upper-level lift. QPF appears to be on the light side, with at best a half inch of precipitation likely over the northeastern Basin Friday evening. A return to more seasonable temperatures appears likely next weekend. -bc && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast sounding develop a widespread, low-based cu field late morning everywhere but KCNM, where convective temps will not be met. No convection expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 94 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 94 69 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 87 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 88 59 88 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...44