Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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504 FXUS64 KMAF 110754 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Low-level moisture in the wake of storms that moved through last evening keeps clouds around, with low clouds developing in the Midland/Odessa metro and areas further east tonight before clearing out around sunrise. IR satellite and radar shows clouds and showers located over the southern Permian Basin and SE NM plains, with some stronger storms over Crane into Upton Counties. We can expect such a setup to continue into this morning. With a cold front hung up along the Trans Pecos beginning to dissipate and the short wave trough providing lift for yesterday`s storms moves off to the east, upper ridging will begin to build into the area. As a result, warmer temperatures than Monday are expected, with highs mostly in the 90s, 80s over the northeastern Permian Basin and northern Lea County and higher elevations, and triple digits over the Reeves County Plains, Western Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. A mix of sun and clouds is forecast, while more widespread cloud cover is forecast over the northeast Permian Basin, which will keep temperatures down. Along with cloud cover, a chance of rain will be maintained for the eastern Permian Basin through Tuesday evening. Instability and shear will be such that any storms that do develop over the eastern Permian Basin have the potential to be severe, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Tuesday night, light easterly flow, some high clouds, and above average lows for mid June can be expected, with mostly 60s, 70s along the Pecos River, over Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Wednesday continues the warming trend, with mostly 90s and above for highs aside from 80s in the higher elevations and Western Low Rolling Plains. Skies clear from west to east, with the most sunshine likely southwest of the Pecos River. Light easterly flow will continue, keeping temperatures down somewhat, but also resulting in widespread dew points in the 60s, 50s over southwesternmost regions. This only only be the start of renewed heat. Read on in the Long Term Discussion for more. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Wednesday night will be quiescent, with near to slightly above normal low temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most. Persistent southeasterly surface flow will be the rule through the extended, which will maintain some semblance of low-level moisture and not only keep overnight temperatures on the milder side, but keep daytime highs from climbing as high as they otherwise may if surface flow were westerly, southwesterly, or even more easterly with less influence from Gulf Moisture. Aloft, ridging develops in earnest just to the west of the area on Thursday, with the ridge developing a positive tilt ahead of a trough progged to translate eastward across the Great Basin and Four Corners Region on Friday. Increasing thicknesses due to the aforementioned ridge will see highs Thursday rebound a couple degrees above normal, topping out in the middle to upper 90s and lower 100s. The hottest temperatures, per normal, will be found along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs reach close to 112F. Temperatures Friday will be similar in spite of the approaching shortwave, though the difference will be found on Friday afternoon as the shortwave somewhat flattens out the ridge and passes to the north of the area. This shortwave will yield potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the favored higher terrain to the west of the Pecos River, with storms developing during the afternoon and diminishing with the loss of insolation and increasing subsidence in the evening as the trough translates eastward. Heading into the weekend, flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday, with increasing subsidence mitigating rain chances aside from a diurnally driven storm or two over the Davis Mountains Saturday afternoon. Cluster analyses and deterministic guidance are in fairly good agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern into early next week, with a southwest-northeast oriented ridge of high pressure extending over the region from Baja into the Central Plains, though there remains uncertainty as to how broad the ridge will become. That said, haven`t deviated from the NBM at this time, with hot, dry conditions and a subtle warming trend carrying us into early next week with highs in the upper 90s and 100s and lows in the upper 60s and 70s. Welcome to summer. JP && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Outside of showers, VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals through TAF period. Winds shift from southeasterly/southerly to northwesterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 17Z-20Z, where winds at MAF become easterly by that time frame. Winds become easterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 02Z Wednesday. Wind speeds remain light with any gusts below 20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 68 92 71 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 98 70 100 72 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 99 73 97 74 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 71 98 73 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 68 93 72 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 92 65 95 69 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 95 60 96 62 / 10 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 92 69 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 93 69 93 73 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 99 72 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...94