235
FXUS64 KMAF 071709
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Early this morning, a decaying MCS is slowly meandering across
the South Plains, and while showers and thunderstorms briefly
developed in northern Lea County, they have since dissipated, with
little additional southward progression expected based on radar
trends. This activity is progged to largely diminish prior to
daybreak, though a brief easterly wind shift is possible for
northern areas due to outflow sagging southward into Southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin. Aside from that, today looks like
it will be a repeat of yesterday - hot and breezy for most
everyone, with another round of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms west of the Pecos River. Fortunately, despite the
hot temperatures instability will remain limited, and with little
shear beneath the ridge, storms will be dependent on insolation
and aid from topography to get going, with outflow assisting in
longevity heading into the evening before storms diminish with the
loss of heating. Highs top out this afternoon in the middle 90s
to lower 100s for most, with the hottest temperatures along the
Rio Grande in the Big Bend and through portions of the Pecos
Valley. Most locations will be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday, and while not noticeable, this will keep areas just
under Heat Advisory criteria. Despite no Heat Advisory today,
everyone will still need to practice heat safety, and remember
that the effects of extreme heat are cumulative, with the effects
felt the most in vulnerable populations and those who have to work
outdoors.

Heading into tonight, persistent southeasterly return flow will
keep lows on the mild side, progged to drop into the lower to
middle 70s for most, with 60s in the mountains. The midlevel ridge
responsible for our hot temperatures meanders toward the Gulf
Coast on Saturday, but it`ll hardly be noticeable as temperatures
remain well above normal, with highs remaining in the 90s and
lower 100s. Maintaining the trend, we`ll also see another round of
diurnally driven storms over the western higher terrain on
Saturday afternoon, but storms should remain sub-severe.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Rain chances increase over the rest of the area Saturday night
into Monday as a cold front moves south into the area. At this
time, any accumulations are expected to be light, only a few
tenths of an inch of rain at most for any areas that do experience
showers and storms. The timing of the front is uncertain, but
still looks to be late Sunday. Therefore, highs Sunday remain
above average after above average lows in the 70s for most places
Saturday night. Triple digit readings will be reached over most of
the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, 110+ highs along the Rio
Grande, and 90s elsewhere, with some upper 80s for the highest
elevations. Lows Sunday night also remain above average and in the
60s and 70s for most, since the cold front will have yet to clear
the area. In the wake of the cold front on Monday, temperatures
everywhere will be much closer to seasonal norms, a few degrees
above average southwest of the Pecos River and below average
northeast of the Pecos River, with 80s over highest elevations,
most of the Permian Basin and Lea County, and 90s and above
elsewhere. Triple digit readings Monday will be confined to along
the Rio Grande. Lows Monday night will likewise be close to
average for mid June, mostly 60s aside from upper 50s over
northernmost areas of Lea County and the Permian Basin, as well as
the highest elevations. Lows in the 70s will be confined to near
the Rio Grande . As a mid to upper ridge builds in again, these
seasonable temperatures will not last, and temperatures will be on
a warming trend Tuesday into the end of next week, with mostly
90s and above for highs, mid to upper 60s and 70s for lows Tuesday
and Tuesday night, respectively. Widespread highs in the 100s
along the Pecos River and over the Reeves County Plains and
Stockton Plateau make a reappearance on Wednesday. Triple digit
highs will be widespread for most places aside from the higher
elevations Thursday and Friday, and lows in the 70s for most
places aside from the highest elevations and northernmost regions
where lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. Diurnal showers and
storms from heating of elevated terrain are possible each day as
well, but these storms are not expected to produce widespread
severe weather nor heavy rainfall, posing more of a fire risk from
lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
times. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field shortly,
as well as near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 4.5-9
kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                 73 104  73  99 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   74 100  75 104 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            75 101  75 104 /   0  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           71  94  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                    71 101  70  98 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    61  94  62  96 /  20  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     76 104  75 104 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44