133
FXUS64 KMAF 062259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The short term synoptic pattern is generally dictated by the
dominant upper ridge overhead, set to slowly meander eastward
through Texas tomorrow. The main headlines under this pattern will
be the continued heat, with high temperatures exceeding the triple
digits both today and tomorrow afternoon region-wide except the
higher elevations and Heat Advisories are in effect today for most
zones along and west of the Pecos River. The low-level thermal ridge
remains at a similar location/intensity for tomorrow, albeit maybe a
degree C cooler, and as such, more Heat Advisories are likely for
tomorrow as well.

Aside from the heat, the other focus in the short term is on largely
diurnally and orographically driven convection across the higher
terrain today and tomorrow. We are already seeing this occur with
showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains and adjacent
foothills southward through the Big Bend though fairly low CAPE and
very little wind shear should keep storms sub-severe. A weak MCS is
likely to develop off this afternoon`s convection across the TX
Panhandle and slowly sag south in the late evening. Most CAMs kill
of this before reaching our area but a few still show the system
edging into the northern Permian Basin before killing it off. A
similar situation is on tap for tomorrow afternoon where largely sub-
severe storms are possible in the afternoon for the western higher
terrain.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The upper ridge that has been in control for the tail-end of this
week continues to slide towards the Gulf Coast on Saturday, giving
way to a trough set to move in and around its periphery. Still,
Saturday`s forecast maintains a repeat of today and Friday`s weather
with continued hot afternoons in the triple digits for most and
afternoon sub-severe thunderstorm chances in the southwestern higher
terrain. The real pattern change looks to arrive on Sunday/Monday
when a cold front pushes into the area. There still remains some
uncertainty in the timing of the arrival of the front but there is
general agreement in it to push in late Sunday, leading to yet
another hot day. The front could bring some added precipitation
chances to the north-central Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.
Between the weak cold front moving through and the
clouds/precipitation present into Monday, some relief from the heat
arrives with highs *only* in the mid 90s for most. Unfortunately,
this relief is short-lived and we snap right back to a pattern akin
of this week with hot and dry afternoons and diurnal showers/storms
in the mountains.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds around 10
kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 102  74 102 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 103  73 103 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                   76 102  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            75 102  75 102 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  94  71  93 /  10  30  30  20
Hobbs                    71 100  70 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  96  61  94 /  20  30  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     76 104  76 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-
     Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29