Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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661 FXUS64 KMAF 052254 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 554 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The "cold" front that moved through last night has stalled along the Pecos River as expected. We were able to shave off a few degrees from the very hot conditions we saw yesterday. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s north of the front with close to 100 along the Pecos and Rio Grande. We are seeing some Cu developing along over the mountains and intense heating and abundant moisture could lead to an isolated storm or two this afternoon. We could also see a storm along the front, but it should remain isolated. Other than some gusty winds with the storms, severe weather is not expected. After a mild night, southeast winds return Thursday as will widespread triple digit heat. Added low level moisture will keep temperatures from getting too hot and we may avoid needing a Heat Advisory for the Big Bend. Still, if you have plans to be outside drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Another round of showers and storms is expected across the higher terrain and adjacent plains Thursday afternoon. Coverage should be a little higher due to better moisture and increased upslope flow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Mid and upper ridging will center itself directly over the region Friday and Saturday allowing for yet another couple of hot days. Most locations outside of the higher terrain will see highs in the 100s. Showers and storms remain possible across the mountains as low level moisture remains in place. While any rain is much appreciated in these parts, lightning within very dry fuels will remain a hazard for new fire starts. The upper ridge quickly breaks down early next week as a strong shortwave moves south into the Plains. This will bring a cold front into the region as weak NW flow develops aloft. There is model consensus in much cooler temperatures behind the front with highs back into the 80s and a better chance of rain. Sunday looks to have the best chance for storms, but this could change depending on the timing of the front. Ridging looks to build back in later in the week with temperatures heating back up and rain chances dwindling. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as light surface winds veer back around to return flow. Forecast soundings develop a cu field by late Thursday morning, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 104 75 104 / 0 10 10 10 Dryden 74 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 103 75 103 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 20 Hobbs 68 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 97 61 97 / 0 40 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 72 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 106 76 106 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...44