607
FXUS64 KMAF 240514
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

This afternoon, subsidence due to a westward expanding ridge of
high pressure is maintaining mostly sunny skies across the region,
with only a few diurnal cumulus popping up over the higher
terrain of Southwest Texas. Chances are slim to none for any
storms to develop this afternoon, with highs progged to top out
near normal in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, 100s for
portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and upper 80s in
the mountains. Similar to last night, lows tonight will be
comfortably mild, in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the
region. Monday will be similar to today with little change to
antecedent conditions, though temperatures will tick above normal
once again, with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s for most,
and lower 90s in the mountain areas. Fortunately, locations look
to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, though it will still be
hot, and those with plans outdoors will need to plan accordingly
to protect themselves from heat- related illnesses. The hotter
temperatures tomorrow could facilitate some isolated diurnally-
driven storms over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon, with
gusty winds and lightning strikes the main concerns. Any storms
that manage to develop will dissipate quickly after sunset, with
another mild night on Monday night as temperatures drop into the
70s.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Upper ridging will largely remain in control of the weather, even
as ridging will reorient itself farther west early this week and
farther east later this week. Better monsoonal moisture over
higher terrain of SE NM and W TX along with heated of elevated
terrain is likely to keep daily chances of showers and storms in
the forecast each afternoon, although increased strength of
ridging in recent runs has reduced shower and storm chances over
the Davis Mountains. Increased capping east of higher terrain
keeps rain chances there near zero. Ridging will be stronger than
in previous runs this week, in line with the European ENS
ensemble, and Heat Advisories might be needed, especially Tuesday
and again on Friday. Next weekend, the upper ridge develops east.
This is in contrast to previous runs from both the ENS as well as
GFS and Canadian ensembles that indicated ridging remaining in
place and weakening, allowing possibility of a weak cold front
moving in from the north. However, ridging developing east allows
more moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico to advect in, with
slightly "cooler" temperatures by next Sunday as a result: mid to
upper 90s over the Permian Basin into the SE NM and Reeves County
plains as well as the Stockton Plateau and near the Rio Grande
replacing highs in the 100s. More extensive areas of highs only in
the 80s over higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans
Pecos are likely as well. Highs by Sunday only a few degrees
above normal for early July are forecast after a much warmer
Friday and a cooling trend beginning Saturday. Lows throughout the
period will continue to only fall into the 70s and above aside
from 60s for higher elevations, Marfa Plateau into the lower Trans
Pecos, and possibly northern Lea County. Light southeast winds, a
mix of clouds each night inhibiting radiational cooling, and dew
point temperatures only dropping into the 60s, 50s westernmost
regions, all keep lows 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout
the long term. As a result of cooler and more humid air later in
the long term, rain chances will become more widespread from the
northwest Permian Basin into SE NM plains and down over Marfa
Plateau. However, at this time rainfall is likely to be spotty and
accumulations remaining below a tenth of an inch for most
locations, highest amounts to the northwest of the forecast area
over the Sacramento Foothills.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR prevails with southeast winds around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 75 103  77 100 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                   74  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 102  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  96  74  92 /   0  20  30  40
Hobbs                    72 100  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    64  97  67  96 /  10  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 104  77 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29