Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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097 FXUS64 KMAF 010003 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 703 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The dry line has pushed well into New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon as result of a low level westward push of moisture. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for mainly the Davis mountains and potentially for plains areas well north of Midland. Convective activity along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains and Guadalupe mountains will shift eastward the next several hours to generate a the isolated storm coverage. The remainder of the region remains dry, with strong capping in place with little to no storm development expected. Temperatures will remain cooler. Widespread thunderstorm activity will return on Saturday as an upper level trough passing through the region helps enhance thunderstorm development along the dryline straddling region. There will be a threat of large hail, winds, and a few tornados with these storms in the afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Sunday will see diminished chances for thunderstorms as drier and more stable air flow pattern begins to take hold. The dryline will retreat to the east toward San Angelo and Abilene, leaving much of the area from Midland westward dry with southwest winds and mostly clear skies. The drying trend will continue on Monday as the dryline shifts further to the east with a dry breezy west flow occurring over much of west Texas. Temperatures on both Sunday and Monday will be near seasonal values with lower to mid 90s for afternoon readings. For Tuesday through Thursday dry conditions will continue across west Texas, but with much warmer temperatures. A strong ridge of high pressure will build over west Texas and New Mexico, setting up a stable subsidence pattern that will cause afternoon temperatures to rise well into the 100s for much of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos area. Heat stress concerns will be a potential impact for those days. The high will shift more to the east next Friday, allowing a stronger southerly flow that will bring moisture back into the region for a chance of Thunderstorms. Temperatures will also moderate and decline several degrees back closer to seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Southeast flow overnight 10 to 15 knots with skies mostly clear. Chance of IFR CIGs at KFST and Davis Mountains Saturday morning, with FEW-SCT020 in that area. Otherwise, conditions should remain VFR through Saturday afternoon. Southeast flow increases tomorrow with gusts to 30 knots likely mid-afternoon. Scattered TSRA forming over Guadalupe/Apache ranges, moving east through the evening hours. Will likely need additional mention of TS between 21-03Z tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Elevated fire danger west of the dryline on this afternoon, including most of the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Range, and Eddy County Plains. Min RH 5-12% and east winds 10 to 15 mph. ERCs remain quite high above the 90th percentile in those areas. Lightning starts will be possible on Saturday as the dryline shifts further west and thunderstorm chances across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico will pose a risk for the elevated terrain and forested areas. Conditions dry out quickly again early next week with stronger west flow and warmer temperatures due to the strengthening of high pressure aloft. Critical conditions possible Monday/Tuesday if forecasted winds remain breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 67 90 67 92 / 10 30 40 20 Carlsbad 67 95 65 101 / 10 30 20 10 Dryden 72 95 72 96 / 10 30 30 10 Fort Stockton 70 96 69 99 / 10 40 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 64 88 65 92 / 10 30 10 10 Hobbs 63 91 64 95 / 20 30 30 10 Marfa 57 95 58 96 / 10 30 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 67 91 68 93 / 10 30 30 10 Odessa 69 92 69 93 / 10 30 30 10 Wink 70 97 70 101 / 10 30 30 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99