Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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737 FXUS64 KMAF 300954 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 454 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Efficient return flow (aided by the LLJ) has 60+ dewpoints and the dryline backed up well into our western zones this morning. Meanwhile, the upper ridge that largely limited yesterday`s convection has slide eastward, giving way to a shortwave, set to glide through northern New Mexico this morning into the early afternoon. Not only will this provide some synoptic ascent, but it will also help cool the mid levels and steepen lapse rates. The effect is ~3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the dryline. With daytime heating, the dryline should sharpen up along/just east of the TX/NM state line, with convective temperature achieved first across the higher elevations, notably the Stockton Plateau (surprise, surprise), and the Caprock southward into the northwestern Permian Basin. These storms will initially be discrete with hodographs favoring supercells, with a classic splitting supercell for Pecos County. The HREF members are in a pretty fair amount of agreement in a left split shooting out of Pecos County into the Permian Basin with a dominant right mover persisting through Terrell County. Meanwhile, the storms that originate across Lea County and the northwestern Permian Basin will likely grow upscale as they drift to the south and east, likely turning into the beginning of an MCS set to push into the Concho Valley this evening. Of note would be an outflow boundary from ongoing convection between Lubbock and Amarillo that pushes southward into our area. The dryline alone should be enough to achieve CI though this boundary may also add some complexity to the mix. There is also a chance that this boundary stabilizes the atmosphere behind it some, so this is definitely a feature to watch as the day progresses. With any severe storms, the primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado chance cannot be ruled out. The severe threat largely ends after 03z this evening with the MCS pushing out of our area, though showers and storms remain possible for the Lower Trans Pecos along the MCS`s outflow as it surges southward late this evening. The other story aside from today`s storms will be the continued heat with 90s for most and 100s+ along the Pecos and Rio Grande. Temperatures seem to sneak just under Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon, so will hold off on issuance for today. Yet another MCS is possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the result of convection in the Tx Panhandle this afternoon. If this occurs, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the northeast Permian Basin tomorrow morning. If this occurs, it will likely be the only storm activity for the eastern zones tomorrow as timing of the outflow limits diurnal destabilization. However, CAMs are hinting at storms forming of the higher terrain of south-central New Mexico moving into Eddy/Lea County Friday evening. As for Friday`s temperatures, they will be largely dependent on the potential MCS outflow in which it will hold highs to the 80s and low 90s for most north/east of the Pecos River. Yet another hot day is expected along the Rio Grande with highs pushing over 100 degrees. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday night, convection will possibly be ongoing in the northeast behind the boundary that moved into the area earlier in the day. Additional convection to the north will reinforce the boundary, retreating the dryline to our western CWA border or farther by 12Z Saturday. Saturday, as surface winds veer back around to return flow, an upper trough will move into the region, resulting in perhaps the best chances of rain this forecast. Because the dryline will be so far west, even the higher terrain will stand a chance of getting something, although QPF continues to look paltry. Unfortunately, this will also pose a risk for fire starts over the drought- stricken higher terrain. To complicate matters further, 40-60 kts of deep layer shear is forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area, with steep mid-level laps rates of 7-9 C/km throughout, resulting in a continuing severe threat as well. Highs will remain as cool or just a smidge warmer than Friday...only 3-5 F above normal. This cooler weather, however, will be ephemeral, as thicknesses begin increasing Sunday in the wake of the exiting trough, with triple digits developing in the Pecos River Valley. Westerlies over the higher terrain will sharpen up the dryline during the afternoon, w/isolated convection possible, mainly in the mountains south. Unfortunately, models are still on track to develop the quasi- stationary upper ridge over Mexico beginning about Monday, sending highs each day into the triple digits most locations. Cluster analysis confirms this, moreso each run it seems. Tuesday still looks to be the warmest day this forecast, when highs plateau 11-13 F above normal. There`s even trends near the end of models runs and the LREF of the dryline headed to El Paso. Without a dryline, rain chances look bleak after Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Relatively light winds out of the southeast become somewhat gusty this afternoon. Locations west of the dryline (CNM/PEQ/HOB/INK) veer to southwesterly during the afternoon before backing to the southeast this evening while terminals east of the dryline (MAF/FST) stay southerly through the day. VFR conditions prevail throughout the period but scattered thunderstorms may impact MAF/FST at times this afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds and potential CIG/VIS reductions are expected. Location/timing of any storms is too uncertain to include mention in TAF at this time but we will amend as necessary today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week, mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of a developing dryline each day. Critical minimum relative humidities will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon. ERCs remain above the 90th percentile in these areas. However, fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low. The one exception continues be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will be far enough west that lightning starts will be possible as far west as the Sacramento Foothills, in the absence of appreciable wetting rains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 66 88 68 / 30 40 30 10 Carlsbad 99 63 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 97 72 97 72 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 66 97 70 / 20 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 96 60 90 64 / 10 0 10 10 Marfa 94 55 95 57 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 95 67 91 68 / 20 10 20 10 Odessa 96 68 93 70 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 101 66 99 71 / 10 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...16