Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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796 FXUS64 KMAF 300534 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1234 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A few clouds and stable conditions behind outflow from last nights storms to our north have kept temperatures down across the Permian Basin this afternoon. While most locations struggle to get to 90 degrees there, temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s south of the Pecos River early this afternoon. Instability is increasing in these hotter locations and isolated storms may develop over the next few hours, especially off the Stockton Plateau. There is a low chance to see a left mover head NE into the Permian Basin, but coverage of storms will be much lower than yesterday. Large hail and damaging winds are again the main threats today. After another mild overnight southeast winds increase bringing deep Gulf moisture across the region Thursday. A dryline will sharpen across the western Permian Basin by afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 90s to near 100 for most locations. A shortwave crossing the TX PH will help generate enough lift to get storms to develop along the dryline by mid afternoon. Similar to yesterday, we will have to monitor for any outflow boundaries that could move into the region from storms that develop tonight well to our north. This could serve as an additional focus for storm development. There is still a lot of uncertainty in how storms will evolve tomorrow, but severe weather is probable given a similar setup to Tuesday. Given the hot temperatures mentioned above, will likely need yet another Heat Advisory across the Davis Mountains south to the Big Bend for Thursday. .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A surface cold front moves south through the area Friday with highs below to near normal for late May in its wake northeast of the Pecos River, ranging from the 80s over northern Lea County, northern Permian Basin, and higher elevations of West Texas, and 90s and above elsewhere. Triple digits readings are forecast over the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau as well as near the Rio Grande. Lows likewise will be a few degrees above normal in the low 60s northern areas, mid to upper 60s for most, upper 50s in highest elevations, and 70s near the Rio Grande into the southeastern Permian Basin. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, a few severe, are possible along/behind the front, with the main risks being damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. Rain chances may be reinforced by incoming boundaries from the northeast from a remnant MCV providing additional mesoscale lift for development and organization of storms. Behind the cold front and in association with this MCV, reinforcing cooler air into the area Friday night and Saturday will keep highs and lows Saturday similar to on Friday. Saturday, with the dryline setting up over far West Texas and an upper short wave trough approaching from the west, low level mass response in the form of easterly upslope surface flow is forecast. This easterly upslope flow advects in moisture and leads to rain chances everywhere across the area, including westernmost regions that have not seen much rain in the last few months. Strong to severe storms are possible again Saturday, and the strongest storms could produce damaging winds and large hail in addition to heavy rain. By Sunday, a summertime-like pattern will begin to develop as an upper ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific into much of the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies. Near the surface, flow everywhere veers from easterly to southerly, also helping to transport warmer air into the area. Highs and lows above average in the 90s and above everywhere aside from the highest elevations and the Western Low Rolling Plains are expected Sunday. This warming pattern only continues into Monday into Wednesday, as persistent southerly surface flow and upper ridging yield widespread highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal, in the triple digits for most of the area, aside from higher elevations and farther west and east of the Pecos River where highs only reach the 90s. Widespread lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s into the 70s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights are also in store. The coolest conditions of the long term will be Friday and Saturday, and the warmest conditions in the long term will be Monday into Wednesday next week. Not all areas will see rain Friday and Saturday, however the most widespread rain is forecast Saturday. Since the dryline has not yet retreated as far west as El Paso, we may still have a few more opportunities for rain before the Death Ridge locks in. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will likely continue the next 24 hours though there is a small chance that MVFR CIGs move into MAF later this morning. Winds will gradually to settle to the southeast overnight, becoming elevated and intermittently gusty at FST and MAF due to the nocturnal low- level jet. Winds then shift to the south and southwest Thursday afternoon, remaining elevated at most terminals. Another round of storms are possible for FST and MAF after 18Z this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are likely each day west of the dryline for westernmost parts of the area in the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, adjacent plains, higher terrain west of the Pecos, and Presidio Valley into the Big Bend, where ERCs running high at or above the 95th percentile, poor overnight recovery, min RH below critical 15%, and gusty 20ft winds contribute to fire weather concerns. On Saturday, storms occurring over these regions of high ERCs could pose a risk for fire starts, however lower fuel density will constrain this risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 66 88 66 / 20 20 30 10 Carlsbad 100 64 96 65 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 97 72 97 72 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 67 99 70 / 10 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 97 62 90 63 / 10 10 10 20 Marfa 95 55 95 57 / 0 0 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 97 67 93 67 / 20 10 20 10 Odessa 97 69 94 68 / 10 10 10 10 Wink 102 67 99 70 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...16