Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
821 FXUS64 KMAF 291640 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1140 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 outflow and a few lingering storms have pushed into the area but winds gradually veer back to the background environmental southeasterly direction by morning. Stratus has also moved in behind this outflow and storms, and is expected to linger across the north- central Permian Basin until it finally scatters out. This stratus will serve to not only keep the northern zones in the 80s for high temperatures this afternoon, but also prevent much instability from forming. With the weak ridge axis moving this afternoon, some subsidence-induced capping should inhibit most afternoon convection outside of a storm or two off the Stockton Plateau. Should any storms get rooted and going, there will be plenty of CAPE above the cap (~2000-2500J/kg) to feed off of along with generally long, straight hodographs that favor splitting supercells. As per usual, a left mover or two could shoot into the east-central Permian Basin this afternoon with a right mover tearing through east-central Pecos County. In addition to the scattered storm chances, the other headline today will be the continued heat, especially the Davis Mountains and Big Bend where another Heat Advisory has been issued this afternoon due to the prolonged heat. Return flow Wednesday night into Thursday once again primes our region with plentiful moisture for storms. This coincides with the ridge sliding eastward, giving way to a weak shortwave across the Panhandle. Between this, diurnal heating, and convergence along the dryline should be enough to get a few thunderstorms to form. With a similar convective setup to Wednesday, any storms that form could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. The prolonged heat sticks around still on Thursday, with another Heat Advisory anticipated for similar areas as today with highs ranging in the upper 90s to the 100s with temperatures 110+ in the lower elevations of Big Bend National Park. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Thursday night, an upper trough will be moving through the region, with convection expected to be ongoing east of a retreating dryline. To complicate matters further, a cold front is forecast to drop in behind the trough after 06Z. East of the dryline, 40-60 kts of 0-6 km shear is forecast, w/mid-level laps rates of 7-9 C/km, for a sever threat into late evening. This cold front will usher in cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. Friday, highs will be near or just above normal most locations, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, a few severe, along/behind the front. This may be reinforced by incoming boundaries from the northeast from a possible MCV. The MCV will push even cooler air into the area Friday night, making Saturday the coolest day this forecast as highs top out right around normal. Saturday morning, the dryline is forecast to be in far west Texas. To the west, an upper trough will approach the region, and this will meet up with easterly upslope flow for perhaps our best shot at rainfall this forecast. With any luck, the higher terrain west of the Pecos will get some rainfall, where it`s needed most at the moment. QPF is paltry, but beggars can`t be choosers. Sunday, return flow resumes, and temperatures begin to recover as upper-level ridging begins strengthening south. Long range models bring a shortwave through the ridge, and this could kick off some isolated afternoon convection along/east or the dryline. Unfortunately, models are still on track to develop the quasi- stationary upper ridge over Mexico Monday/Tuesday, sending highs each day into the triple digits most locations. By Tuesday, highs will be ~ 10-12 F above normal, and grids stay dry after Sunday. The only consolation is that the dryline hasn`t retreated to El Paso yet, so there may be a couple more opportunities for rain before the Death Ridge locks in. But time is running out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR will prevail through the period as low CIGs burn off over the next hour. Winds will remain out of the east and southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week, mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of a developing dryline each day. Critical minimum relative humidities will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon. ERCs remain above the 95th percentile in these areas. However, fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low. The one exception will be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will be far enough west that lightning starts will be possible in the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, and areas directly south to the Presidio Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 68 95 68 / 20 10 20 20 Carlsbad 95 64 100 63 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 98 73 98 71 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 69 102 68 / 20 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 64 96 62 / 20 10 10 10 Marfa 95 55 96 53 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 69 97 68 / 20 10 10 10 Odessa 93 70 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 98 69 103 66 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...29