Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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361 FXUS64 KMAF 280154 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 854 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 This evening, the Heat Advisory that was in effect for most locations along and south of I-10 has been allowed to expire. However, another hot day is ahead tomorrow, and given forecast high temperatures of 95 to 98 degrees in the Davis and Chinati Mountains, and up to around 110 degrees along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, another Heat Advisory has been issued. Tuesday`s Advisory includes the Davis Mountains and Foothills as well as Brewster County, and while temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, these temperatures will still be dangerous, especially given the effects of extreme heat are cumulative. Those with outdoor plans or who work outdoors will need to plan accordingly. The forecast remains on track tonight and tomorrow, with focus continuing to be on severe thunderstorm potential beginning mid to late afternoon Tuesday, continuing into the early evening. There is currently a low (10-40%) probability of severe thunderstorms, with particular focus across the central and eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Tuesday afternoon, with very large hail and damaging winds the main concerns. Latest CAMs indicate that storms will move eastward, with most convective activity east of the area by mid evening, and fairly quiescent conditions thereafter. Stay tuned, as details may change over the next 12 to 18 hours. JP && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Weak ridging moves in tonight with a shortwave trough undercutting it. Return flow tonight will bring low level moisture in across the eastern half of the CWA. A dryline sharpens just to the west of Midland/Odessa Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings show ample instability, plenty of shear, and steep lapse rates that would allow any storms that do develop to become severe. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats along with heavy rain and lightning. Hi- resolution guidance continue to suggest most of the activity initiating over Pecos County tomorrow afternoon with other activity developing across the eastern Permian Basin. Plenty of heat will be available with temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s. Storms will generally move from west to east over the course of the afternoon and into the evening. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings! -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The extended forecast looks busy with convective chances nearly every day into this weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as the location and timing of daily storms will likely be predicated on what occurs the previous day. This is mainly due to outflow boundaries from overnight convection that may form to our north. Models indicate this could occur each night through Friday. You`ll want to check in several times this week as the forecast could change significantly from day to day. On Wednesday most storm chances will push of the Permian Basin due to the arrival of a cold front/outflow from storms Tuesday night. Will adjust NBM PoPs down and refocus the higher chances for storms along and south of the Pecos River. Beyond midweek, mid level flow remains weak with periodic disturbances providing multiple opportunities for storms. Temperatures each day will depend on where fronts and outflows settle, but overall we will remain pretty close to normal. Very hot temperatures could return early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Gusty winds this evening will diminish after sunset, with winds becoming light and somewhat variable overnight. The exception will be FST where southeasterly winds may remain elevated due to the nocturnal low- level jet. By Tuesday afternoon, winds will become elevated and gusty out of the southwest at CNM/HOB/INK/PEQ, with southerly to southeasterly winds expected at FST/MAF. Thunderstorms are possible late in the period, mainly impacting FST/MAF, though low confidence in timing and location precludes mention at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Extremely low humidity (near 4-5%) persists this afternoon after yet another morning of poor moisture recovery for much of the region. However, winds are much lighter and will only regularly exceed 20 mph in and around the Guadalupe Mountains. Near-critical to critical RFTIs are likely for a few hours here this afternoon, but with relatively low fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts, have declined any fire weather headlines. Fire weather concerns become more limited through the weekend with good recovery each night and relatively light winds along with a chance of storms. Very dry conditions will continue west of the dryline across the far western zones. This will be a concern given a threat for fire ignitions from lightning activity where extremely dry fuels exist. This could produce a large wildfire with high resistance to control if it were to occur in complex terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 99 65 84 / 0 40 30 30 Carlsbad 65 102 64 93 / 0 10 10 20 Dryden 74 98 71 96 / 10 50 30 30 Fort Stockton 73 102 68 96 / 10 50 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 69 92 63 87 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 63 99 61 86 / 0 20 20 30 Marfa 60 98 57 94 / 10 30 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 70 99 65 87 / 0 40 20 30 Odessa 72 100 67 88 / 0 40 20 30 Wink 69 104 67 92 / 0 30 10 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...84