Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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071 FXUS64 KMAF 270904 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 404 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 WV imagery shows a dirty ridge building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. Clear skies, the absence of a LLJ, and a very dry airmass are promoting efficient radiational cooling, allowing overnight minimums to cool to only 2-4F above normal. Memorial Day, the ridge overhead strengthens, increasing thicknesses and afternoon temperatures an average of 5F over Sunday`s. That said, we`ll reissue the same Heat Advisory as yesterday`s, throwing in the Davis Mountains/Foothills, Chisos Basin, central Brewster, and Pecos Counties. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ develops, replenishing the boundary layer over the eastern CWA with rich Gulf moisture, advecting 70+F dewpoints into the lower Trans Pecos by 12Z Tuesday. This, along with increasing mid/high cloud, will yield overnight lows 3-4F higher than tonight`s. This will also bank the dryline up against the higher terrain. Models develop convection south of the border, and a stray cell or two could cross the river overnight. This will all prime the pump for a potentially busy day of convection on Tuesday. At 18Z Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to be moving through the South Plains just north of the CWA. Models put the triple point somewhere invof northern Lea or Gaines Counties. To the west a shortwave will be conveniently moving through the ridge. If this can overcome the cap during the afternoon, all bets are off. In the warm sector, the latest NAM forecast soundings on the lower Trans Pecos depict mucapes in excess of 5000 J/kg, w/dry subcloud layers promoting dcapes 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear 40-60kts is forecast along/east of the dryline, and mid-level lapse rates of 7-9C/km or even steeper. Needless to say, Tuesday afternoon looks busy. Increased moisture, cloud cover, and anticipated convection will keep afternoon highs a couple of degrees cooler than today`s, but a Heat Advisory looks warranted again for at least lower Brewster county.| && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 After any storms that fire off Tuesday afternoon/evening, storm activity should be out of the area after 03z Wednesday with likely numerous outflows that have swept through. Nevertheless, southeasterly return flow will replenish any overturned moisture with the dryline shoved back along and west of the Pecos River by 12z. A notable difference in Wednesday`s setup compared to Tuesday will be the upper ridge axis shifting to be more overhead. To the degree this affects storm potential is still somewhat uncertain, though forecast soundings hint at a slightly stronger subsidence- driven cap that could inhibit storm development. Of course, lingering boundaries and elevated heat sources may overcome this cap, but this is generally conditional on how Tuesday shakes out. Complicating the setup further on Wednesday is what looks to be a weak back-door front set to nose into the northeastern Permian Basin which could help focus storm development in this region. Still, the thinking here is that Wednesday`s storm coverage will be notably lower than on Tuesday`s and the NBM is going a little overboard...have cut down PoPs on Wednesday accordingly with the highest PoPs remaining across the northeastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. The upper ridge nudges eastward by Thursday with slightly more progressive westerlies aiding in mixing the dryline a bit further east than Tues/Wed. A fairly stagnant surface pattern sets up for the latter portion of the week with the dryline mixing into the east- central Permian Basin, possibly firing off a few storms, then retreating back west of the TX-NM state line at night. The passage of a shortwave within the quasi-zonal upper flow could enhance storm activity some that day which appears to occur on Thursday and again on Saturday. We`re nosing into the "peak" of our severe weather season at this point folks so we`ll just take it day by day. Wednesday looks to be the "coolest" day of the long term for some across northern/eastern Permian Basin thanks to the backdoor cold front and added clouds/precipitation chances. Elsewhere and as we move into the weekend, above normal temperatures persist with highs in the mid-upper 90s with 100+ degrees in the river valleys. Of most concern is along the Rio Grande in Big Bend National Park where temperatures will likely exceed 110 degrees each afternoon. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 No changes. VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds increasing tonight. Light westerly winds today will veer back to return flow after sundown. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Extremely low humidity (near 4-5%) persists this afternoon after yet another morning of poor moisture recovery for much of the region. However, winds will be much lighter and should only regularly exceed 20 mph in and around the Guadalupe Mountains. Near-critical to critical RFTIs are possible for a few hours here this afternoon, but with relatively low fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts, have declined any fire weather headlines for this afternoon. A similar story sets up for Tuesday afternoon but much better moisture recovery works in tonight. Fire weather concerns remain limited through the weekend with good recovery each night and relatively light winds. Very dry conditions set up west of the dryline and little to no moisture relief is expected for the far western zones. Along and east of the dryline, scattered storms are possible nearly every afternoon moving into early next week which will be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 103 70 98 66 / 0 0 50 40 Carlsbad 100 65 102 65 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 107 75 99 71 / 0 10 50 30 Fort Stockton 105 73 102 68 / 0 10 50 20 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 92 63 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 98 63 98 62 / 0 0 20 20 Marfa 97 61 97 57 / 0 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 102 70 98 67 / 0 0 40 30 Odessa 101 71 99 67 / 0 0 40 30 Wink 104 70 103 68 / 0 0 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Terrell. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44