Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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742 FXUS64 KMAF 310611 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Weak shortwave aloft will track across the TX panhandle and DFW region overnight into Friday morning, allowing ongoing convection to conglomerate into upscale, mesoscale growth and adjust storm propagation to a more southerly motion. MCS likely to form early Friday morning across much of northern Texas with a cold front moving south along the leading gust front of this system. Main threat with Friday morning`s storms will be gusty winds along the leading line of storms, generally between 6-10 AM for the Snyder/Big Springs area. Storm threat should come to an end for all local zones by noon. Cooler temperatures tomorrow behind frontal passage in the morning. Afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 80s for the northeastern Basin, mid-to-upper 90s for the Trans-Pecos region. Cooler surface air and a strong capping inversion at 750 mb will greatly hinder afternoon storm chances. East surface winds cutting off the tap of Gulf moisture is another factor limiting storm chances. A few evening storms will be possible along the northern fringes of our forecast area (closer to Lubbock) with convection that forms in southeast NM, otherwise we`ll stay dry through this afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 00Z GFS resolving a shortwave ridge on Saturday, with embedded waves within the prevailing zonal flow aloft. Surface flow shifting back to the southeast will reinforce moisture flux and thus allow for another uptick in thunderstorm chances area wide. Best chance will be during the late-evening hours with initial convection developing off to the west and tracking eastward and subsequent upslope flow allowing storm coverage to grow headed into Saturday night. PWATs 150% of normal would suggest efficient rain makers and the risk of areal flooding as storm coverage increases Saturday night. Strengthened southwest flow ahead of a subtropical jet streak will mix out the dryline boundary across the Trans-Pecos region on Sunday, shifting the boundary further east closer to Midland. We may see a few isolated storms result further east as a result, but much lower PoPs expected due to this influx of drier air from the west. Deep westerly flow take hold of the whole area Monday as a strengthening upper high over northern Mexico begins a warming trend. The northward shift of this high pressure will result in very hot day start to next week with triple-digit highs Monday- Wednesday. Some relief from the heat seems possible late in the week with a deep low pressure system over the northern Plains and subsequent cold front spilling south into the Texas panhandle. NBM temperatures spread varies greatly regarding the eventual southern extent of that cooler air, with the ECMWF featuring a much sharper trough. Model confidence in the position of the upper high is low at this time, so will settle with the NBM`s modest cooldown and low-end PoPs for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. KMAF currently at MVFR with BKN024 with the passing of a remnant outflow boundary moving NE to SW, CIGs should lift between 06-07Z. Elsewhere, quiet weather remains with VFR conditions. Winds currently out of the SE at all terminals at 7-12 knots. KMAF more easterly behind the remnant outflow boundary aforementioned above at 10-15 knots with gusts of 25 knots. Developing TS over the Texas Panhandle will develop into an MCS and dive S/SE during the overnight hours, with possible impacts at KMAF by 13Z. Confidence is low on how far west the line of TS will extend, so mention of VCTS at 13Z for now. With this boundary associated with the developing MCS, the winds will shift E/NE by ~11Z for KHOB, ~13Z for KMAF/KINK, 14Z for KPEQ/KCNM, and ~15Z for KFST. Winds will be out of the E/NE at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots. BKN to OVC at 6000-10000 expected. Skies will clear from the NW to SE during the mid and late morning timeframe with light winds (7-12 knots) out of E/SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Elevated fire danger west of the dryline on Friday, including most of the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Range, and Eddy County Plains. Min RH 5-12% and east winds 10 to 15 mph. ERCs remain quite high above the 90th percentile in those areas. Lightning starts will be possible on Saturday as the dryline shifts further west and thunderstorm chances across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico will pose a risk for the elevated terrain and forested areas. Conditions dry out quickly again early next week with stronger west flow and warmer temperatures due to the strengthening of high pressure aloft. Critical conditions possible Monday/Tuesday if forecasted winds remain breezy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 67 90 67 / 40 10 20 30 Carlsbad 95 67 95 66 / 0 0 30 20 Dryden 98 72 95 73 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Stockton 98 70 96 69 / 0 0 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 89 64 88 65 / 0 0 20 20 Hobbs 90 63 91 64 / 10 10 30 30 Marfa 95 57 95 58 / 0 0 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 89 67 91 68 / 20 0 30 30 Odessa 91 69 92 69 / 10 0 30 30 Wink 99 70 97 69 / 0 0 30 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99