Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
238 FXUS64 KMAF 301933 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 233 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some severe with all hazards in play, are forecast this afternoon and evening for the northern Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos - Another round of thunderstorms Friday night? Going to be a busy afternoon, so will keep this somewhat brief. Latest mesoanalysis and satellite data suggest that the outflow boundary is along a line from south of Tatum NM east-southeastward through just northeast of Midland to almost Garden City, TX. Meanwhile, a dryline extends across southeastern NM from Artesia south through Carlsbad, then from there south southeastward to near Pecos and Fort Stockton. Hodographs support splitting storms this afternoon where convection can realize substantial MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg, steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and effective shear in the 40-50 knot range. Right-moving daughter cells, especially if they can latch onto the baroclinic vorticity within the outflow boundary, will have the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes just inside the cool side of the boundary where LCLs and subcloud RHs are higher than on the warm side of the boundary. Large to giant (> 3" diameter) hail, wind gusts over 70 mph, and very heavy rainfall are likely to occur. With the left-moving daughter cells, all threats are in play except for tornadoes. Looking at two areas for CI this afternoon...Pecos County and also along the outflow boundary across the northern/northwestern Permian Basin. WoFS paintballs suggestive of upscale growth into two MCSs, one with messy cell mergers over the northeastern Basin and the second over Terrell County. Flash flooding will then be a concern over these areas. Some CAMs are hinting at redevelopment over the northeastern Basin after midnight as well...bears watching. Friday looks to be a down day as cool outflow from the expected MCSs overspreads the area. Should be a nice day. Friday night likewise should be quiet, with possibly some showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern Basin Friday night. NBM looked good for the short- term and was used with no modification other than to add T+ in the grids for this afternoon/evening where there was PoPs. -bc && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Behind a cold front reinforced by mesoscale outflow boundaries, easterly upslope surface flow will advect in higher levels of moisture for all of the area on Saturday. PWATs are forecast to reach levels that are above annual climatological maximum, with parts of West Texas being included by WPC in risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to increased moisture behind Friday`s cold front and the dryline setting up farther to the west, an upper short wave trough will provide lift for storms. The most widespread rain chances are forecast Saturday, when a chance of thunderstorms will be present for much of the area. SPC has outlined parts of West Texas in a SLGT risk Saturday and MRGL Sunday. The combination of deep layer shear of 40-60kts over the southern 2/3rds of the area, anomalously high boundary layer moisture, and steep lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will be conducive to a risk of hail and damaging winds in any storms that develop and become severe on Saturday. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most intense and rapidly developing storms, the higher tornado risk looks to be present farther north over the TX PH. Despite storm chances over westernmost regions, QPF remains low over higher terrain. More on this in the Fire Weather Discussion. Sunday`s storm coverage will be less than Saturday as the trough moves east of the area, with most forcing for convection a result of the dryline. Westerly downsloping winds over higher terrain sharpens the dryline during the afternoon, but only isolated convection is forecast, mainly in southern parts of the area over the mountains. Hail and damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. Increasing thicknesses following the departing trough on Sunday will also result in warmer temperatures than Saturday. After Sunday, a summer-like Death Ridge pattern, with ridging building from the eastern Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, will mark a warming trend that continues into Wednesday. Cluster analysis consistently shows a quasi-stationary upper ridge setting up over Mexico by Monday, and LREF model as well as forecast dew point grids indicate the dryline retreating west to El Paso after Sunday. While still too early to tell, this might mark the unofficial start of our monsoon season. With the dryline this far west, rain is not likely anywhere in the area. Some rain chances are indicated at the end of the long term for western parts of the area, but this far out we will need to see a more consistent signature in models before we conclude rain is possible next week. Highs Saturday will be the coolest out of all days in the long term, near to below average northeast of the Pecos River with upper 80s over higher elevations and northeastern Permian Basin, and a few degrees above average in the 90s and above elsewhere, triple digits near the Rio Grande. Lows Saturday night remain warmer than average and in the 60s, 70s near the Rio Grande and over the southeastern Permian Basin. Highs Sunday feature 90s and above, with triple digits making an appearance not only in the Big Bend but also in the Reeves County Plains up along the Pecos River into SE NM. Lows will Sunday night will be similar but warmer than Saturday night, as surface flow becomes more southerly and warmer air from the south is transported into the area. Monday through Wednesday, highs 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for early June are expected, with highs mostly in the triple digits and above, aside from higher elevations, northern Lea County, and the northern Permian Basin where highs will stay in the 90s. Lows likewise will continue to be warmer than average, 70s present over much of the southern and eastern Permian Basin, leeward plains of the Guadalupe into Davis Mountains, and near the Rio Grande, 60s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday are likely to be the warmest in the long term, close to 15 degrees above average for early June. After surface flow again becomes more easterly later on Wednesday in response to an approaching short wave, highs Thursday will be slighter "cooler" but remain above average, similar to readings seen on Sunday. Lows Thursday night will continue the trend of above average temperatures, with warmest lows in the 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio Grande, and coolest lows in the highest elevations of West Texas and the Guadalupes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 With the exception of KFST and KMAF, VFR conditions and winds generally under 11 knots are forecast to prevail through 31/18Z. Now, for the bad news. Convection-allowing models persist in bringing in +TSRA at KFST and KMAF, likely with large hail, frequent lightning, and very heavy rain, in the 30/20Z to 30/23Z range. Confidence in MVFR to IFR conditions in +TSRA BR and variable winds gusting up to 45 knots (and likely exceeding that!) is sufficient to include at these two terminals this afternoon. Look for improving conditions after 31/00Z. -bc && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast over westernmost regions each day, mainly west of the dryline for higher terrain west of the Pecos, especially Eddy County Plains and the Guadalupes. Min RH below critical 15% level will coincide with increased 20ft winds each afternoon west of the dryline, with ERCS remaining above the 90th percentile. In any storms Saturday afternoon, fire starts from lightning will be possible as far west as the Sacramento Foothills due to critically dry fuels and lack of wetting rains in any storms. However, below average fuel density will constrain fire risk. Highest risk of fire weather conditions is indicated for Sunday through Wednesday, with critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 86 67 90 / 50 20 10 20 Carlsbad 62 95 66 96 / 0 0 10 30 Dryden 72 97 72 95 / 20 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 67 98 70 96 / 10 10 0 40 Guadalupe Pass 64 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 60 89 63 92 / 10 10 10 30 Marfa 56 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 66 90 67 92 / 10 10 10 20 Odessa 67 92 69 92 / 10 10 10 20 Wink 66 98 70 96 / 0 0 0 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...70