503
FXUS64 KMAF 171737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will
pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area
for today. Return flow under the ridge that has been stationed over
the Southern Plains has pushed low level moisture into SE NM and a
weak surface trough/dryline feature is backed up over far west
Texas. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day
today, the surface feature will follow suit. Shower and storm
chances increase this afternoon across SE NM southward across the
Davis Mountains and adjacent foothills. Forecast soundings along the
surface feature show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape that
drive home that any strong to severe storms that do develop may
contain strong to damaging wind gusts. Storms begin to develop
during the mid to late afternoon and taper off during the evening
after the loss of daytime heating. Areas east of the TX/NM border
see storm chances diminish quickly as the thermodynamic environment
is much less favorable away from the diffuse dryline to the west.

Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low
departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out
above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of
the mountains that stay slightly cooler. Overnight lows remain well
above normal in the 60s to low 70s thanks to continued southeasterly
flow.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Enjoy the heat while you can.  Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast
to center over Coahuila, providing perhaps the warmest day this
forecast for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Under the ridge,
thicknesses will be optimized, and highs should be a balmy ~ 10-12 F
above normal.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast
south of the Bay Area, nudging the ridge east and developing
southwest flow aloft over the region.  Thicknesses will begin a
downward trend after Thursday, with highs following suit each day.
Friday, the trough begins moving east, ejecting to the Four Corners
by around 18Z Saturday.  The trough is forecast to push a Pac front
into the western CWA Saturday but, as early as the season is,
there`s not much push behind it, and models hang it up mid-CWA
Sunday.  Convection will be possible along this feature, mainly over
parts of Southeast New Mexico.  Sunday night, return flow forms a
warm front, pushing this feature back into the northwest fringes of
the CWA Monday and Monday night.

Even with the Pac front hanging up over the weekend, thicknesses
will continue to crater, and cooler air will make its way into the
region.  Sunday and Monday, highs should average less than 5 F above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs at terminals aside from CNM and HOB, where
showers and storms are possible from 20Z into 04Z and could result
in some MVFR in blowing dust, hail, and damaging winds in the
strongest storms. Showers and storms are also possible at PEQ from
05Z into 11Z, although left out mention from TAFs due to <10%
PoPs at PEQ. Southeast winds expected at all terminals outside of
storms, gusty at times before subsiding 05Z-12Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  96  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   71  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  98  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  67  89 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    68  93  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  92  64  92 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  98  74  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94